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Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in November?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the House Ethics Committee report pertaining to the investigation of Matt Gaetz for sexual misconduct/drug use is made public by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Both the official release of the report by the House Ethics Committee or the report being made public through a leak will qualify. Partial releases/leaks of the report will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from a House Ethics Committee and a consensus of credible reporting.

Event Details

Total Volume: $40.0K
24h Volume: $2.3K
Total Liquidity: $5.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/30/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The House Ethics Committee investigation into Rep. Matt Gaetz has been ongoing since 2021, examining allegations of sexual misconduct, drug use, and other potential violations. The investigation has recently intensified with new witness testimonies and evidence gathering, though Gaetz has consistently denied all allegations. With only 2 days remaining in November 2024, the likelihood of the Ethics Committee report being made public this month appears extremely low. While there has been significant pressure from some lawmakers to release the findings, procedural requirements and political considerations make an immediate release highly improbable at this late stage in the month.

Analysis

Current Status of Investigation

  • House Ethics Committee has conducted over a dozen interviews
  • Issued 25+ subpoenas and reviewed thousands of documents
  • Recently contacted new witnesses, including alleged victims
  • Investigation remains active but no clear timeline for completion

Key Factors Affecting Report Release

  1. Political Dynamics
  • Strong pressure from some Democrats to release findings
  • House Speaker Johnson expressed preference to keep findings private
  • Bipartisan interest in resolution, particularly after Santos precedent
  1. Procedural Requirements
  • Committee needs to finalize report
  • Members must vote on release
  • Standard protocols for review and redaction
  • Limited working days remaining in November
  1. Recent Developments
  • New witness testimonies emerged
  • Additional evidence being gathered
  • Ongoing debate about public release
  • Continued media scrutiny

Barriers to November Release

  • Only 2 days remaining in month
  • No indication of imminent release
  • Lack of scheduled committee meetings
  • Procedural requirements make quick release unlikely

Future Considerations

  • Report could still be released in coming months
  • Potential for leaks remains
  • Political pressure may increase after November
  • Investigation continues to gather evidence

Prediction

Given the extremely limited time remaining in November and no signs of imminent release, I predict with high confidence (9/10) that the Ethics Committee report will NOT be made public in November 2024. While the report may eventually become public, the current timeline and procedural requirements make a release in the next 2 days highly improbable.

Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in November?

Yes:1.0%
No:99.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Market Options

Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in November?

Yes
0.9%
No
99.2%
Liquidity: $5.7K
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