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Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michel Barnier ceases to be the Prime Minister of France for any period of time between November 20, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Event Details
Total Volume: $31.7K
24h Volume: $2.5K
Total Liquidity: $1.5K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market concerns whether Michel Barnier, who was appointed as French Prime Minister in September 2024, will cease to hold that position during the period of November 20-December 31, 2024. Barnier faces significant challenges governing with a fragmented parliament where no party holds a majority, following snap elections earlier in 2024.
The political situation is precarious, as Barnier must navigate between different factions including Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National and the left-wing New Popular Front. His ability to pass critical legislation, particularly the 2025 budget, will be a key test of his government's stability. At 73, Barnier is the oldest Prime Minister in modern French history, bringing extensive experience but also questions about his ability to unite diverse political forces.
Analysis
Political Background
- Appointed PM in September 2024 following snap elections
- No party holds majority in National Assembly
- Three main political blocs:
- Macron's centrist alliance
- Le Pen's Rassemblement National
- Left-wing New Popular Front
Key Challenges
- Must pass 2025 budget by October 1
- Requires support across political spectrum
- Potential for no-confidence votes
- Age factor (73) may impact perception
Stabilizing Factors
- Extensive political experience
- Background as EU Brexit negotiator
- Perceived as skilled negotiator
- No immediate presidential ambitions
Risk Factors
- Fragile parliamentary support
- Opposition from both left and right
- Historical instability of French governments
- Pressure from Marine Le Pen's party
Recent Developments
- Successfully formed government in September
- Initial negotiations with various parties
- Focus on budget preparation
- Managing coalition relationships
Prediction
Based on the evidence, I assess a 70% probability that Barnier will remain Prime Minister through the specified period. While the political situation is unstable, his experience and negotiating skills make him well-suited to navigate the challenges. However, there is a 30% chance he could cease to be PM due to parliamentary challenges or coalition collapse.
Will Michel Barnier cease to be Prime Minister of France between Nov 20-Dec 31, 2024?
Yes:30.0%
No:70.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10