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MLS Cup Winner
This is a market on predicting the winner of the Major League Soccer Cup.
Event Details
Total Volume: $1.4M
24h Volume: $2
Total Liquidity: $38.7K
Markets: 17
Event Ends: 12/7/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The 2024 MLS Cup prediction markets present an interesting landscape shaped by recent roster changes, coaching transitions, and the continued evolution of the league. Based on comprehensive analysis of expert predictions and team developments, there appear to be several strong contenders emerging, particularly from the Eastern Conference.
The current market prices show some notable discrepancies with expert analysis, especially regarding teams like Inter Miami (with Messi and Suárez) and Columbus Crew (defending champions). Key factors influencing team performance will include management of aging stars, squad depth for international breaks, and how well teams integrate new signings. The prediction markets appear to be undervaluing some strong contenders while potentially overvaluing teams like LA Galaxy and Orlando City.
Analysis
Current MLS Landscape
Top Contenders
-
Inter Miami CF
- Addition of Luis Suárez alongside Messi
- Concerns about managing aging stars
- Impact of Copa América absences
- Current market price (0%) appears significantly undervalued
-
Columbus Crew
- Defending champions with retained core roster
- Strong tactical system under Wilfried Nancy
- Current 0% market price seems mistaken
-
Atlanta United
- Strong offseason moves
- Solid attacking core
- Questions around Thiago Almada's future
Mid-Tier Contenders
- LA Galaxy (40% market price)
- Appears overvalued given roster uncertainty
- Limited evidence of significant improvement
- Seattle Sounders (17% market price)
- Consistent performers
- Strong roster continuity
- Reasonable market valuation
Key Factors to Watch
-
International Tournaments
- Copa América impact on star players
- Squad depth importance
-
Player Health
- Aging stars management (especially Miami)
- Long season endurance
-
Conference Strength
- Eastern Conference appears stronger
- More competitive playoff race expected
Recent Developments
- Multiple coaching changes (27% of league)
- Significant player movements
- Eastern Conference showing more stability
- Western Conference experiencing more volatility
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis, I predict:
- Inter Miami has a 20% chance of winning (current market 0% is wrong)
- Columbus Crew should be priced around 15% (not 0%)
- LA Galaxy is overvalued at 40% (should be closer to 10%)
- Seattle Sounders' 17% appears roughly correct
- Orlando City at 30.5% seems high (should be 15-20%)
Will Inter Miami win the 2024 MLS Cup?
Yes:20.0%
No:80.0%
Will LA Galaxy win the MLS Cup?
Yes:10.0%
No:90.0%
Will Columbus Crew win the MLS Cup?
Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/ranking-all-29-mls-teams-by-tier-for-2024
- https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/contenders-pretenders-stars-5-questions-as-mls-preseason-begins
- https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/mls-2024-season-predicting-where-lionel-messis-inter-miami-lafc-and-others-finishes-in-standings/