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Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares Monkey Pox (MPXV) a pandemic between August 8 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $330.1K
24h Volume: $476
Total Liquidity: $58.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether the WHO will declare monkeypox (mpox) a pandemic in 2024 requires careful analysis of current epidemiological data, WHO protocols, and global health trends. Based on comprehensive review of available sources, the current market prices (2.6% Yes / 97.4% No) appear generally well-calibrated, though perhaps slightly overconfident in a "No" outcome.
The key factors supporting the low probability include: 1) Current containment of mpox outbreaks through existing public health measures, 2) Available vaccines and treatments, and 3) The WHO's demonstrated reluctance to declare pandemics without clear evidence of sustained global spread. However, the potential for new variants, waning immunity, or changes in transmission patterns means a pandemic declaration cannot be completely ruled out.
Analysis
Current Status of Mpox
- Global cases as of late 2023 show contained spread with effective public health measures in place
- Two main clades identified:
- Clade I (Central Africa): More severe, up to 10% mortality
- Clade II (West Africa): Less severe, 99.9% survival rate
- Primarily spread through close contact, with sexual transmission being a major route in recent outbreaks
Factors Reducing Pandemic Likelihood
- Enhanced Surveillance
- Robust monitoring systems in place globally
- Early warning capabilities through WHO and national health organizations
- Improved data collection and sharing since COVID-19
- Medical Countermeasures
- Available vaccines including MVA
- Established treatments and protocols
- Growing healthcare worker expertise
- Public Health Infrastructure
- Better prepared after COVID-19 experience
- Established isolation and contact tracing procedures
- International coordination mechanisms in place
Factors That Could Increase Pandemic Risk
- Viral Evolution
- Potential for new variants
- Risk of increased transmissibility
- Possible resistance to current treatments
- Changing Patterns
- Waning population immunity
- New transmission routes
- Global travel impacts
- Healthcare System Stress
- Concurrent health emergencies
- Resource limitations
- Healthcare worker burnout
Recent Developments
- WHO's updated pathogen priority list expected in early 2024
- Ongoing surveillance shows contained outbreaks
- No significant mutations or changes in transmission patterns reported
Key Monitoring Points for Traders
- Watch WHO statements and updates
- Monitor case numbers in non-endemic regions
- Track any viral mutations or changes in transmission
- Observe effectiveness of current containment measures
Prediction
Based on current evidence, I estimate a 5% chance of WHO declaring mpox a pandemic in 2024 (slightly higher than market price of 2.6%). While current containment appears effective, the possibility of viral evolution or changing transmission patterns warrants maintaining a non-zero probability. The market appears slightly overconfident in a "No" outcome.
Will WHO declare monkeypox a pandemic in 2024?
Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10