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Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency (e.g. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, NIH, etc.) definitively states that the initial Monkeypox (Mpox) Clade 1 virus came from a lab by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $82.8K
24h Volume: $2
Total Liquidity: $29.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether any U.S. official or agency will confirm that the monkeypox virus (specifically Clade 1) originated from a lab leak by December 31, 2024. Current market sentiment strongly favors a "No" outcome at 98.1%, reflecting both the lack of evidence supporting a lab origin and the established scientific understanding of monkeypox as a zoonotic disease.
The available evidence consistently points to natural transmission pathways, with recent studies focusing on documented cases of animal-to-human and human-to-human spread. While there have been concerning revelations about biosecurity at certain U.S. labs, including the Rocky Mountain Lab and an unauthorized lab in California, none of these findings have produced credible evidence linking monkeypox's origins to a laboratory setting.
Analysis
Background on Monkeypox Origins
- First identified in 1958 in research monkeys
- Two major clades: Clade I (Central Africa) and Clade II (West Africa)
- Historically understood as a zoonotic disease transmitted from animals to humans
- Endemic in parts of Africa with documented natural transmission cycles
Current Scientific Evidence
Natural Origin Support
- CDC and WHO documentation consistently describes zoonotic transmission
- Recent studies confirm animal-to-human and human-to-human spread
- Genetic studies show evolutionary patterns consistent with natural origin
- Well-documented cases of transmission through close contact and sexual activity
Lab-Related Concerns
- Revelations about biosecurity issues at U.S. labs
- Discovery of unauthorized lab in California with dangerous pathogens
- Ongoing experiments with dangerous viruses at Rocky Mountain Lab
- However, none directly implicate labs in monkeypox origins
Key Factors to Watch
- Ongoing Investigations
- Congressional inquiries into lab safety
- Results from current studies on viral origins
- Any new whistleblower revelations
- Political Environment
- Changes in administration priorities
- Congressional pressure for transparency
- International relations, particularly with China
- Scientific Developments
- New genetic studies of virus evolution
- Emergence of resistant strains
- Documentation of transmission patterns
Recent Developments
- Studies showing natural transmission clusters in DRC
- Development of new vaccines and treatments
- Emergence of tecovirimat-resistant variants
- Increased scrutiny of lab safety protocols
Prediction
Based on the available evidence and current trajectory, there is a very low probability (approximately 2%) that U.S. officials will confirm a lab leak origin for monkeypox by the end of 2024. The overwhelming scientific consensus points to natural origins, and there is limited time remaining in 2024 for significant new evidence to emerge and prompt official confirmation. A "No" outcome appears highly likely (approximately 98% probability).
Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?
Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10