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MrBeast x Ronaldo video # views on day 1?
This is a market on predicting the number of views the Mr. Beast and Ronaldo video will receive.
Event Details
Total Volume: $344.9K
24h Volume: $45.9K
Total Liquidity: $35.8K
Markets: 5
Event Ends: 11/30/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market centers on forecasting day-one views for a highly anticipated collaboration video between YouTube megastar MrBeast and soccer icon Cristiano Ronaldo. This represents a unique confluence of two massive global audiences - MrBeast's 300M+ YouTube subscribers and Ronaldo's 630M+ Instagram followers.
Recent evidence suggests extremely strong potential for record-breaking viewership. Ronaldo's YouTube channel launch broke records for fastest subscriber growth, while MrBeast consistently achieves hundreds of millions of views on major releases. Their combined star power, cross-platform promotion capabilities, and engaged fan bases create conditions for exceptional day-one performance.
Analysis
Background on Key Players
-
MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson)
- 300M+ YouTube subscribers across channels
- Known for high-budget viral content
- Most viewed creator on YouTube
- Record: 469M views on Squid Game video
-
Cristiano Ronaldo
- 630M+ Instagram followers
- Recent YouTube channel launch broke records
- Gained 1M subscribers in 90 minutes
- Strong cross-platform engagement
Key Factors Affecting Day One Views
Positive Drivers
-
Combined Audience Size
- MrBeast's proven YouTube viewership
- Ronaldo's massive social following
- Cross-pollination of audiences
-
Platform Dynamics
- YouTube recommendation algorithm boost
- Social media cross-promotion
- Trending page placement likely
-
Content Appeal
- High production value expected
- Universal appeal across demographics
- Language/cultural barriers minimal
Potential Limitations
-
Timing/Competition
- Other major content releases
- Time zone considerations
- Seasonal factors
-
Technical Factors
- Platform performance
- Distribution speed
- Initial buffering period
Recent Developments
- Ronaldo's YouTube channel launch success
- MrBeast's consistent view growth
- Evolution of YouTube Shorts format
- Increased celebrity collaboration trends
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis of historical data, platform dynamics, and combined audience reach, I predict the MrBeast x Ronaldo video will achieve between 150-200M views in its first 24 hours. Higher confidence is placed on exceeding 100M views (90% probability), with decreasing confidence for each additional 50M threshold. Record-breaking performance (>469M) is possible but less likely (15% probability).
day_one_views
<100M:10.0%
100M-150M:30.0%
150M-200M:35.0%
200M-300M:15.0%
>300M:10.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Market Options
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video between 100m-125m views on day 1?
Yes
8.5%
No
91.5%
Liquidity: $35.8K
Trade →Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 75m-100m views on day 1?
Yes
23.0%
No
77.0%
Liquidity: $35.8K
Trade →Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1?
Yes
12.0%
No
88.0%
Liquidity: $35.8K
Trade →Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1?
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Liquidity: $35.8K
Trade →