The 2024 NBA Eastern Conference Championship race appears to be dominated by the Boston Celtics, who have shown remarkable consistency and strength throughout the season. With a 64-18 record and strong performances on both ends of the court, they have established themselves as the clear favorites despite strong competition from teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks. The current market probabilities show some interesting disparities, particularly with Boston at 45% despite overwhelming expert consensus of their favoritism. Several teams including the Bucks, 76ers, and Heat have seen their chances diminish due to various factors including injuries, internal drama, and inconsistent performance. The market appears to be undervaluing Boston while potentially overvaluing some middle-tier teams.

Current State of Eastern Conference

Top Contenders

• Boston Celtics (45.0%)

  • League-best 64-18 record
  • Strong roster continuity with 93% minutes returned
  • Elite performance on both offense and defense
  • Concerns about age/health of Horford and Porzingis

• Cleveland Cavaliers (16.1%)

  • Strong regular season showing
  • Added valuable pieces like Georges Niang and Max Strus
  • Questions about playoff experience and pressure performance

• New York Knicks (15.5%)

  • Solid regular season with top-10 offense and defense
  • Added Mikal Bridges
  • Need additional frontcourt depth

Mid-Tier Contenders

• Milwaukee Bucks (7.4%)

  • Added Damian Lillard but lost Jrue Holiday
  • Concerns about Khris Middleton's health
  • Underperforming relative to talent level

• Philadelphia 76ers (4.5%)

  • Major uncertainty around Joel Embiid's health
  • Internal drama with James Harden situation
  • Could fall into play-in tournament

Key Factors to Watch

1. Injuries

   • Multiple stars dealing with issues (Embiid, Haliburton, etc.)
   • Load management approaching playoffs
   • Depth becoming increasingly important

2. Playoff Experience

   • Celtics and Heat have significant advantage
   • Questions about Cavs and Knicks in pressure situations
   • Coaching experience in crucial moments

3. Schedule and Momentum

   • Different strength of remaining schedules
   • Teams positioning for playoff seeding
   • Impact of back-to-backs and rest

Recent Developments

• Tyrese Haliburton dealing with hamstring strain
• Joel Embiid's uncertain status affecting 76ers
• Celtics maintaining consistency despite challenges