The question of whether Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during the remainder of 2024 sits at the intersection of multiple complex factors, including the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Netanyahu's corruption trial, and shifting political alliances within Israel's coalition government. The current market prices (97.1% No, 2.9% Yes) suggest traders are highly confident Netanyahu will maintain his position through 2024. However, analysis of recent developments, including plummeting approval ratings, coalition instability, and resumption of his corruption trial, indicates the market may be overconfident in the status quo, though significant barriers to Netanyahu's removal remain.

Political Background

• Netanyahu currently leads a coalition government formed in December 2022
• Coalition includes Likud party and several right-wing/religious parties
• Faces ongoing corruption trial on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust
• Approval ratings have dropped significantly following October 7 Hamas attacks

Key Factors Affecting Likelihood of Netanyahu's Departure

Stabilizing Factors (Supporting "No")

• Wartime leadership traditionally more stable
• Legal framework requires conviction and appeals before forced resignation
• Coalition partners lack clear alternative leader
• Netanyahu's proven political survival skills
• Procedural barriers to quick government change

Destabilizing Factors (Supporting "Yes")

• Historically low approval ratings (~25%)
• Resumed corruption trial could accelerate
• Growing calls for post-war elections
• Coalition instability and internal criticism
• International pressure over Gaza war conduct

Recent Developments

1. War Cabinet Formation

• Emergency unity government formed
• Opposition figures included
• Temporary political stability

2. Legal Proceedings

• Corruption trial resumed December 2023
• Defense testimony expected spring 2024
• Potential for accelerated timeline

3. Public Opinion

• 75%+ believe Netanyahu should step down
• Protests against war handling
• Coalition partner criticism increasing

Critical Timeline Points

• Spring 2024: Expected Netanyahu testimony
• Post-war period: Likely election pressure
• October-December 2024: Market resolution window

Key Indicators to Monitor

1. War Developments

• Military achievements/setbacks
• Hostage negotiations
• International support levels

2. Coalition Stability

• Partner statements/actions
• Budget negotiations
• Internal Likud support

3. Legal Proceedings

• Trial pace/developments
• Witness testimony impact
• Potential plea negotiations