Next NFL Head Coach Fired

The NFL head coach firing market presents an interesting opportunity given the current stage of the NFL season and recent coaching changes. With several teams underperforming and ownership groups potentially looking to make changes, there are multiple viable candidates who could be next to lose their position. Based on recent firings and team performance, Brian Daboll of the Giants and Doug Pederson of the Jaguars emerge as the leading candidates, with both teams struggling and showing signs of regression. Other candidates like Antonio Pierce and Mike McCarthy face varying degrees of pressure but appear to have more job security in the immediate term. The market seems to be pricing these risks reasonably well, though there may be some opportunities in the Daboll and Pederson markets.

Current NFL Coaching Landscape

• Eight NFL teams have already made head coaching changes in the 2023-24 cycle
• Recent firings include high-profile departures like Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll
• Historical data shows teams often improve performance after mid-season coaching changes

Analysis of Leading Candidates

Brian Daboll (Giants) - 29.8% Yes

• Giants showing significant regression from 2023 playoff appearance
• Team has struggled with offensive production and quarterback issues
• New ownership may be looking to make changes
• Market price appears reasonable given team's struggles

Doug Pederson (Jaguars) - 28.0% Yes

• Jaguars experiencing late-season collapse
• Team underperforming despite talented roster
• Previous Super Bowl win provides some buffer
• Market may be underpricing risk given recent team performance

Antonio Pierce (Raiders) - 18.7% Yes

• Serving as interim head coach
• Has shown some success and player support
• Mark Davis known to pursue high-profile candidates
• Price appears slightly high given recent team improvement

Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) - 7.0% Yes

• Team performing well overall
• Playoff position relatively secure
• Jerry Jones typically patient with coaches
• Market appropriately pricing low probability

Key Factors to Watch

1. Team Performance

   • Final regular season games
   • Playoff implications
   • Point differentials and competitive level

2. Ownership Dynamics

   • Public statements
   • Historical patience with coaches
   • Front office changes

3. Player Support

   • Locker room dynamics
   • Public player comments
   • Team chemistry indicators

4. Media Coverage

   • Local media sentiment
   • National reporting on job security
   • Insider information leaks