Next Prime Minster of Ireland

Ireland is set for a pivotal general election on November 29, 2024, following significant political developments including Leo Varadkar's surprise resignation as Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader in March 2024, and Simon Harris's subsequent elevation to party leadership. The election comes amid shifting voter priorities, with immigration and housing emerging as key issues. Recent polling shows a complex political landscape, with Fine Gael under Harris experiencing a resurgence in support (around 24.5%), while traditional opposition leader Sinn Féin has seen declining support (from 37% to 18.5%). The election will determine Ireland's largest-ever Dáil with 174 seats across 43 constituencies, featuring over 650 candidates from various parties competing for power.

Current Political Landscape

Party Positions

• Fine Gael (24.5%): Led by Simon Harris, showing renewed momentum after Varadkar's departure
• Fianna Fáil (21.5%): Maintaining steady support under coalition government
• Sinn Féin (18.5%): Experiencing significant decline from previous highs
• Independents: Growing support base, particularly among voters concerned about immigration

Key Issues Driving Voter Sentiment

1. Immigration: Emerged as a major concern, rising from 13% to 25% of voter priorities
2. Housing Crisis: Remains consistently important to about 50% of voters
3. Cost of Living: Decreased in importance but still significant at 28%
4. Healthcare: Stabilized at around 25% voter concern

Recent Developments

Leadership Changes

• March 2024: Leo Varadkar's resignation
• Simon Harris's quick consolidation of party support
• Strong performance in European Parliament elections (June 2024)

Electoral Dynamics

• Record number of candidates (650+)
• Largest Dáil in history (174 seats)
• Strong showing of independent candidates
• Potential for complex coalition negotiations

Key Factors to Watch

1. Voter Turnout: High turnout could benefit established parties
2. Last-minute Swings: Recent polls show volatility in voter preferences
3. Coalition Formation: Post-election negotiations will be crucial
4. Regional Variations: Different constituencies showing varying patterns of support