The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024 is a critical climate indicator that builds upon the record-breaking temperatures observed in 2023. Current data and forecasts suggest a high likelihood of continued warming trends, particularly influenced by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon which is expected to impact temperatures well into 2024. Based on comprehensive analysis of recent climate data, historical trends, and expert forecasts, temperatures for November 2024 are likely to show significant increases above pre-industrial levels. The current El Niño conditions, combined with persistent global warming trends and record ocean heat content, suggest that temperatures will likely fall within the 1.30-1.34°C range, though there is also a substantial possibility of temperatures in the 1.25-1.29°C range.

Global Temperature Analysis for November 2024

Current Climate Context

• 2023 was the warmest year on record, with temperatures ~1.54°C above pre-industrial levels
• Strong El Niño conditions emerged in 2023 and are expected to influence temperatures through 2024
• Ocean heat content has reached record levels, indicating sustained warming potential
• Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent remains significantly below historical averages

Analysis of Market Ranges

Below 1.20°C (0.4% market probability)

• Extremely unlikely given current trends and conditions
• Would require unprecedented cooling relative to recent observations
• No supporting evidence in climate data or models

1.20-1.24°C (6.5% market probability)

• Highly unlikely given current warming trajectory
• Would require significant weakening of El Niño effects
• Inconsistent with recent temperature observations

1.25-1.29°C (33.0% market probability)

• Moderate possibility
• Would represent slight cooling from recent peaks
• Could occur if El Niño effects weaken faster than expected

1.30-1.34°C (47.5% market probability)

• Most likely range based on current data
• Aligns with El Niño influence and warming trends
• Consistent with recent temperature observations

1.35-1.39°C (10.5% market probability)

• Possible but less likely
• Would require stronger than expected El Niño effects
• Within historical variability range

Above 1.39°C (2.5% market probability)

• Unlikely but not impossible
• Would require exceptional circumstances or stronger warming
• Outside typical variability range

Key Factors to Watch

1. El Niño Evolution

   • Strength and duration of current El Niño phase
   • Timing of potential transition to neutral conditions

2. Ocean Heat Content

   • Continued monitoring of ocean temperature anomalies
   • Impact on atmospheric temperatures

3. Arctic/Antarctic Conditions

   • Sea ice extent and melting patterns
   • Polar amplification effects

4. Climate Policy Implementation

   • Global emissions reduction efforts
   • Implementation of COP28 commitments

Recent Developments

• Record temperatures in 2023 set new baseline
• Continuing strong El Niño conditions
• Unprecedented ocean heat content levels
• Accelerating loss of polar ice