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NYC mayoral special election in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a special election for the office of New York City Mayor is scheduled for a date between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the New York City Board of Elections, the Mayor’s Office, or the New York State Board of Elections however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $13.3K
24h Volume: $0
Total Liquidity: $14.8K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether a special election for NYC Mayor will be scheduled between September 26 and December 31, 2024. The context centers around current Mayor Eric Adams, who faces multiple federal investigations into his campaign finances and allegations of illegal foreign donations. Recent reports indicate declining approval ratings and mounting legal pressure.
The key consideration is whether these challenges will force Adams to resign or be removed from office during the relevant timeframe, triggering a special election. While the investigations are serious and expanding, the narrow timing window and typical duration of such investigations suggest the likelihood of a special election in late 2024 remains relatively low, though higher than current market prices indicate.
Analysis
Current Situation
Legal Challenges
- Multiple federal investigations into Mayor Adams' campaign finances
- FBI raids on key fundraisers and campaign officials
- Allegations of illegal foreign donations and straw donor schemes
- Declining approval ratings (54% disapproval according to recent Marist poll)
Special Election Triggers
- Mayor resignation
- Criminal indictment leading to removal
- Other circumstances creating vacancy
Timeline Considerations
- Special election window: Sept 26 - Dec 31, 2024
- Current investigations ongoing but at preliminary stages
- Typical duration of federal investigations often exceeds 12 months
Key Factors to Watch
Investigation Progress
- Further FBI raids or subpoenas
- Indictments of campaign officials
- Cooperation agreements with prosecutors
- Direct evidence linking Mayor Adams
Political Pressure
- Public approval ratings
- City Council stance
- Democratic Party support
- Media coverage intensity
Legal Developments
- Court filings
- Plea deals
- Investigation scope expansion
- Defense team statements
Recent Developments
- FBI raid on fundraiser Brianna Suggs' home
- Seizure of electronic devices
- Hiring of high-profile legal defense team
- Multiple associates under scrutiny
Market Analysis
- Current market price (0.7% Yes) appears too low given circumstances
- Investigation momentum suggests ~5-15% chance of special election
- Narrow timing window remains key constraint
- Market may be underpricing tail risk
Prediction
While a special election remains unlikely during the specific window, current market prices undervalue the possibility given the serious and expanding nature of federal investigations. I estimate a 10% chance of a special election being scheduled during the specified period, with 90% probability of no special election. Confidence is moderate given the complex and evolving situation.
NYC mayoral special election in 2024?
Yes:10.0%
No:90.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10