The 2025 Polish presidential election represents a crucial moment in Polish politics, coming after significant shifts in the political landscape following Donald Tusk's recent rise to power. Current polling shows Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Coalition) with a substantial lead over Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice), both in first-round scenarios and potential second-round matchups. The election, scheduled for May 2025, occurs against a backdrop of political transformation as Tusk's coalition government attempts to implement reforms while facing resistance from the current PiS-aligned President Duda. Recent polling data and electoral dynamics suggest a strong advantage for Trzaskowski, though several months remain before the election.

Political Context and Background

Current Political Landscape

• Donald Tusk's coalition recently ended 8 years of PiS rule
• Tensions exist between Tusk's government and current President Duda
• Political environment remains polarized between liberal and conservative factions

Candidate Profiles

• Rafał Trzaskowski

  • Current Mayor of Warsaw
  • Nearly won 2020 presidential election
  • Strong support in urban areas
  • Represents liberal Civic Coalition

• Karol Nawrocki

  • PiS party candidate
  • Less nationally recognized
  • Represents conservative continuation
  • Faces uphill battle given PiS's recent losses

Electoral Analysis

Current Polling Data

• Trzaskowski: 40.4% (first round)
• Nawrocki: 24.5% (first round)
• Second round projection:
  • Trzaskowski: 55.9%
  • Nawrocki: 33.7%

Key Factors Affecting Outcomes

1. Voter Turnout

   • Expected to exceed 50%
   • 46.2% "determined" to vote
   • 13.1% "likely" to vote

2. Coalition Stability

   • Tusk's government performance
   • Implementation of reforms
   • Management of social issues

3. External Factors

   • Ukraine war impact
   • Economic conditions
   • EU relations

Risk Factors and Variables

1. Time to Election

   • Six months remain
   • Potential for significant shifts
   • Campaign effectiveness

2. Political Developments

   • Government reform success
   • Opposition reorganization
   • Coalition unity

3. Public Opinion Shifts

   • Progressive policy implementation
   • Economic performance
   • International relations