Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
According to uselectionatlas.org there were 158,594,895 votes cast in 2020 Presidential election (see: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are 158,594,896 or more votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Background
- 2020 election saw record turnout of 158.6M votes (66.8% of eligible voters)
- Multiple factors drove 2020 turnout:
- Expanded mail-in voting due to COVID-19
- Intense political polarization
- Strong voter mobilization efforts
- High stakes perceived by both parties
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Record Turnout (>158.6M votes)
Supporting Factors
- Continuing political polarization and high stakes
- Growing youth voter engagement (55% turnout in 2020)
- Improved voter outreach and registration efforts
- Population growth since 2020
- Strong early voting trends in recent elections
Challenging Factors
- Some states have restricted mail-in voting access
- Potential voter fatigue after multiple high-tension elections
- Historical pattern of turnout declining after peak years
- Polling showing lower enthusiasm than 2020
- Some voters dissatisfied with likely candidates
Below Record (<158.6M votes)
Supporting Factors
- Return to more normal voting procedures post-COVID
- Historical precedent of turnout declining after records
- Voter fatigue and disengagement
- Stricter voting requirements in some states
- Lower enthusiasm in polling data
Key Factors to Watch
-
Voting Access
- State-level voting rules and restrictions
- Early voting availability
- Mail-in ballot policies
-
Voter Engagement
- Youth registration rates
- Campaign mobilization efforts
- Issue salience
-
Political Climate
- Candidate popularity
- Electoral competitiveness
- Major policy debates
-
Demographics
- Population growth
- Changes in eligible voter pool
- Youth participation trends
Prediction
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sources
- https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/why-people-dont-vote/
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/984745/youth-voter-turnout-presidential-elections-us/
- https://election.lab.ufl.edu/voter-turnout/turnout-demographics/
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/