← Back to Events
Ripple above $1.46 on November 29?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRPUSDT 29 Nov '24 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 1.46001 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRPUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRPUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Event Details
Total Volume: $199.3K
24h Volume: $74.2K
Total Liquidity: $52.2K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/29/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
Based on the search results, XRP has seen significant price movements in late November 2024, driven by multiple factors including the announcement of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's upcoming departure in January 2025 and overall bullish crypto market conditions. As of November 26, Bitcoin was trading around $94,000, indicating strong overall crypto market momentum.
The market appears to be at a critical juncture with XRP recently trading around $1.38 (as of November 22) after experiencing a 24.9% surge in 24 hours and a 75% rise over the previous week. With multiple positive catalysts including regulatory clarity and broad crypto market strength, the movement of XRP above $1.46 by November 29 appears highly likely based on current momentum and market sentiment.
Analysis
Economic and Market Background
- Overall crypto market is showing significant strength with Bitcoin above $90,000
- Federal Reserve expected to maintain current policy through year-end
- Institutional adoption continues to increase across crypto markets
Recent XRP Price Action
- Surged nearly 25% to $1.38 on November 22
- Weekly gain of ~75%
- Monthly gain over 161% since start of November
- Currently benefiting from positive regulatory momentum
Key Catalysts
- Regulatory Developments
- Announced departure of SEC Chairman Gensler (January 2025)
- Increasing regulatory clarity
- Positive sentiment around future SEC leadership
- Market Factors
- Strong Bitcoin performance driving overall crypto market
- Increased institutional adoption
- Growing real-world utility and partnerships
- Technical Analysis
- Strong upward momentum
- Breaking key resistance levels
- Healthy trading volume supporting moves
Risk Factors
- General crypto market volatility
- Potential profit-taking after recent surge
- Short-term overbought conditions
- Only 1 day until resolution
Outlook for November 29 Close
Given:
- Current price well below but approaching target
- Strong momentum and catalysts
- Very short timeframe remaining
- Recent surge patterns
The probability appears high that XRP will close above $1.46 on November 29.
Prediction
Based on current momentum, market conditions, and the very near-term resolution date, I predict with high confidence (85%) that XRP will close above $1.46 on November 29, 2024. The recent surge patterns and positive catalysts support this outcome, though some volatility risk remains given the short timeframe.
XRP_above_1.46_nov29
Yes:85.0%
No:15.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 7/10