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Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Ukraine and Russia both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. If only one country (e.g. only Ukraine, or only Russia) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Event Details

Total Volume: $1.1M
24h Volume: $49.2K
Total Liquidity: $59.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement in 2024 has become increasingly clear as the year progresses. Multiple high-level sources, including Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov and U.S. State Department officials, have explicitly stated they do not expect a ceasefire before the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. This timing, combined with entrenched positions on both sides, makes a 2024 resolution highly unlikely. The historical context of failed peace negotiations in early 2022, when conditions were potentially more favorable, provides important perspective. Recent statements from both Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin suggest that while both sides occasionally signal openness to talks, their fundamental positions remain incompatible - particularly regarding territorial control and Ukraine's potential NATO membership.

Analysis

Historical Context

  • Early 2022 negotiations came close to agreement but failed due to:
    • Western influence, particularly from UK PM Boris Johnson
    • Lack of trust between parties
    • Constitutional barriers regarding NATO membership
    • Security guarantee concerns

Current Diplomatic Landscape

Russian Position

  • Putin states readiness for talks but maintains firm conditions:
    • No NATO membership for Ukraine
    • Recognition of annexed territories
  • Military leadership claims advantageous position
  • Unlikely to negotiate before U.S. election results

Ukrainian Position

  • Zelenskyy shows theoretical openness to diplomacy
  • Maintains rigid conditions including:
    • Return to pre-2014 borders
    • War reparations
    • International tribunal for Russian officials

Key Factors Influencing Outcome

  1. U.S. Presidential Election

    • Critical timing factor through November 2024
    • Potential Trump victory could reshape dynamics
    • Current administration maintains strong support for Ukraine

  2. Military Situation

    • Stalemate conditions reported
    • Ukraine facing manpower challenges
    • Russia increasing military production

  3. Western Support

    • Questions about sustained aid levels
    • Competing priorities (Israel conflict)
    • NATO unity showing some strain

Recent Developments

  • Putin's December 2023 statements maintain hard line
  • Ryabkov explicitly rules out 2024 ceasefire
  • Zelenskyy indicates 2025 as earliest realistic timeframe
  • Ongoing military operations with no significant breakthrough

Prediction

Given the consistent messaging from multiple authoritative sources and the fundamental incompatibility of current positions, I assess a 95% probability that no ceasefire will be reached in 2024. The small 5% probability accounts for unexpected major developments like dramatic military shifts or radical political changes.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

Yes
4.9%
No
95.1%
Liquidity: $59.3K
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