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Russian Ruble ₽120 to $1 USD in November?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Russian Ruble (RUB) price / exchange rate of one US Dollar (USD) hits ₽120.000 or greater at any time between November 27 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the mid-market rates on the foreign exchange platform XE: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1D, specifically the "high" price within the market timeframe. This market will resolve on midmarket prices with a 10-min resolution, however the "high" price for the time period of this market will be sufficient.
Event Details
Total Volume: $27.2K
24h Volume: $10.9K
Total Liquidity: $12.2K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/30/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether the Russian Ruble will reach or exceed ₽120 to $1 USD during November 27-30, 2024. This question comes amid significant pressures on the Russian economy from international sanctions, declining energy revenues, and structural economic challenges. Recent analysis from multiple financial institutions and economic experts suggests continued weakness in the Ruble, though there remains significant uncertainty about the extent of potential depreciation.
The key factors influencing this outcome include Russia's monetary policy response, global oil prices, the effectiveness of international sanctions, and broader geopolitical developments. The Central Bank of Russia has already shown willingness to implement aggressive interest rate hikes to defend the currency, but structural economic challenges and declining trade surpluses continue to exert downward pressure on the Ruble.
Analysis
Economic Background
- The Russian Ruble has experienced significant depreciation in 2023, losing approximately 40% of its value against the USD
- The Central Bank of Russia has responded with interest rate hikes, moving from 7.5% to 15% to stabilize the currency
- Trade surpluses have declined to historic lows, primarily due to reduced energy export revenues
Key Factors Affecting Outcome
Negative Pressure on Ruble
- Continuing international sanctions impact
- Reduced energy export revenues and required price discounts
- Declining trade surplus
- Structural economic challenges
Stabilizing Factors
- Aggressive monetary policy response capability
- Government ability to implement capital controls
- Potential for oil price recovery
- Adaptation to sanctions over time
Recent Developments
- Russian economy showing signs of adaptation to sanctions but facing continued headwinds
- Shift in export patterns toward Asian markets, though at significant price discounts
- Central Bank maintaining aggressive stance on inflation control
- Budget expenditure increases planned for 2024 could add inflationary pressure
Market Timing Considerations
- Presidential elections in March 2024 may influence economic policy
- Seasonal factors in energy markets could affect trade balance
- Year-end currency market dynamics may increase volatility
Prediction
Based on the comprehensive analysis of available data and expert assessments, I predict a 65% probability that the Russian Ruble will reach or exceed ₽120 to $1 USD during November 27-30, 2024. The combination of structural economic weaknesses, continuing sanctions pressure, and declining trade surpluses creates significant downward pressure on the Ruble, though government intervention capabilities provide some counterbalance.
RUB_reaches_120
yes:65.0%
no:35.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10