The prediction market focuses on whether Sam Altman will cease to be CEO of OpenAI between September 25, 2024 and December 31, 2024. This follows a period of significant turbulence in late 2023 when Altman was briefly ousted as CEO before being reinstated with a restructured board and improved governance framework. The market currently shows strong confidence (96%) that Altman will remain CEO through 2024, reflecting the stability brought by recent governance changes, strong employee support, and Microsoft's increased involvement as a non-voting board observer. However, key risks remain, including potential governance challenges, the rapid evolution of AI technology, and the complex dynamics of leading a company at the forefront of AI development.

Background & Context

Recent Leadership History

• November 2023: Altman briefly ousted as CEO by board citing transparency concerns
• Massive employee revolt threatened mass resignations
• Altman reinstated with new board structure including Bret Taylor as chair
• Microsoft added as non-voting board observer

Current Stability Factors

• Restructured board with stronger governance
• Strong employee loyalty demonstrated during crisis
• Microsoft's strategic involvement providing stability
• Clear mission and priorities established post-crisis

Outcome Analysis

Scenario 1: Altman Remains CEO (96% Current Probability)

Supporting Factors:

• New governance structure reduces risk of sudden board actions
• Strong employee backing creates high cost to removal
• Microsoft's influence adds stability
• Recent successful fundraising of $6.6B

Risks:

• Ongoing evolution of AI safety concerns
• Potential regulatory challenges
• Internal tensions over AI development pace

Scenario 2: Altman Leaves CEO Role (4% Current Probability)

Potential Triggers:

• Major AI safety incident
• Regulatory intervention
• Internal strategic disagreements
• Personal decision to step down

Key Factors to Watch

Near-term Indicators

• Board stability and effectiveness
• Employee retention rates
• Progress on governance improvements
• Regulatory developments in AI

Long-term Considerations

• AI development milestones
• Competitive landscape
• Relationship with Microsoft
• Public perception of AI safety

Recent Developments

• Departure of several key executives including CTO Mira Murati
• Successful fundraising rounds
• Continued product development and research progress
• Growing focus on AI safety and governance