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Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Olaf Scholz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time between September 2, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Event Details
Total Volume: $352.5K
24h Volume: $449
Total Liquidity: $29.5K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether Olaf Scholz will cease to be Chancellor of Germany during 2024 represents a complex political forecast amid significant challenges facing the current German government. Recent polling shows Scholz's SPD party hovering around 14-16% support, with his personal approval ratings at historic lows of around 20% - the lowest for any German Chancellor since polling began in 1997.
However, despite these challenges, the next federal election is scheduled for September 2025, and Germany's political system makes it difficult to remove a sitting Chancellor without a constructive vote of no confidence. While Scholz faces significant headwinds from budget crises, coalition tensions, and poor polling, the institutional stability of the German political system suggests he is likely to remain in office through 2024.
Analysis
Political Context
- Current coalition government includes SPD (Scholz), Greens, and FDP
- Coalition facing significant challenges:
- Budget crisis following constitutional court ruling
- Historic low approval ratings
- Rising AfD opposition polling at 19-22%
- Internal coalition tensions
Recent Polling Data
Latest polling shows:
- CDU/CSU (Opposition): 30-32%
- AfD: 19-22%
- SPD (Scholz): 14-17%
- Greens: 12-15%
- FDP: 5-6%
Key Factors to Watch
- Constitutional Requirements
- Constructive vote of no confidence needed to remove Chancellor
- No precedent for successful removal in German history
- High institutional barriers to change
- Coalition Stability
- Budget crisis creating internal tensions
- FDP polling near 5% threshold
- Green Party also facing declining support
- External Pressures
- Economic challenges
- Immigration debates
- International conflicts
- Energy security concerns
Timeline Considerations
- Next regular election scheduled for September 2025
- No clear mechanism for early removal in 2024
- Opposition still organizing leadership structure
- Coalition partners unlikely to force crisis
Recent Developments
- Historic low approval ratings for Scholz (20%)
- Budget crisis following constitutional court ruling
- Rising AfD opposition numbers
- Coalition tensions over policy direction
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I assess there is a 94% probability that Scholz will remain Chancellor through 2024. While he faces significant challenges, the institutional barriers to removal and lack of clear alternatives make an early departure highly unlikely. The market price of 96.8% for "No" appears slightly high but generally accurate.
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?
Yes:6.0%
No:94.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.dw.com/en/olaf-scholz-the-most-unpopular-german-chancellor-ever/a-67667351
- https://apnews.com/article/germany-parliamentary-election-september-2025-fa9833641e1173f97f92f18d8be2229e
- https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1729272448061681907
- https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1729466107184980026