← Back to Events
Solana ETF approved in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Solana ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $697.7K
24h Volume: $12.9K
Total Liquidity: $46.6K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether a Solana ETF will be approved by the SEC in 2024 sits at the intersection of regulatory developments, market dynamics, and the evolving cryptocurrency landscape. Recent developments, particularly the SEC's engagement with Bitcoin ETF applications and potential approvals in early 2024, provide important context for assessing the likelihood of a Solana ETF approval.
According to Standard Chartered analysis, while Solana is considered a strong candidate for future ETF approval, such approval is more likely to materialize in 2025 rather than 2024. This timeline assessment, combined with the SEC's methodical approach to cryptocurrency ETF approvals - starting with Bitcoin and potentially moving to Ethereum - suggests a low probability of Solana ETF approval within the 2024 timeframe.
Analysis
Economic and Regulatory Background
Current SEC Landscape
- The SEC is actively engaging with Bitcoin ETF applications, with potential approvals expected in January 2024
- Multiple firms including BlackRock, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton are in discussions with the SEC
- Focus remains primarily on Bitcoin and Ethereum products
Cryptocurrency Market Context
- Bitcoin prices have shown strength, trading above $38,000
- Institutional interest in crypto ETFs is growing
- SEC has become more open to cryptocurrency products, but maintains a careful, staged approach
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Scenario 1: Approval in 2024 (Low Probability)
Factors supporting:
- Successful Bitcoin ETF approvals could accelerate timeline for other cryptos
- Growing institutional interest in Solana
- Precedent set by Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs
Factors against:
- Standard Chartered analysis points to 2025
- No current Solana ETF applications in process
- SEC's historically cautious approach
Scenario 2: No Approval in 2024 (High Probability)
Supporting evidence:
- SEC likely to focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum first
- Timeline constraints make 2024 approval unlikely
- Lack of current applications or regulatory discussion about Solana ETFs
Key Factors to Watch
- Bitcoin ETF Approvals
- January 2024 decisions will set important precedents
- Success could accelerate timeline for other crypto ETFs
- Regulatory Framework
- SEC's approach to non-Bitcoin crypto assets
- Development of clear guidelines for crypto ETFs
- Market Development
- Solana's market performance and adoption
- Institutional interest in Solana products
Recent Developments
- SEC engaging with multiple Bitcoin ETF applicants
- Public comment periods opened for various Bitcoin ETF applications
- Standard Chartered's analysis suggesting 2025 timeline for Solana ETFs
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis of available data and expert opinions, I predict with high confidence that a Solana ETF will not be approved in 2024. The current market probability of 96.6% for "No" appears well-calibrated. While the cryptocurrency ETF landscape is evolving rapidly, the timeline for Solana approval appears more likely to extend into 2025.
Will a Solana ETF be approved in 2024?
Yes:3.4%
No:96.6%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/24/sol-xpr-could-be-possible-candidates-for-etfs-standard-chartered-bank-believes/
- https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-etf-approval-sec-january-2-10/
- https://www.axios.com/bitcoin-etf-approval-sec-crypto-saga
- https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/peirce-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023