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Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 2, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Event Details
Total Volume: $67.4K
24h Volume: $1.5K
Total Liquidity: $10.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during any period between September 2 and December 31, 2024. With just over a month remaining in the resolution window, Starmer appears to be in a stable position following Labour's victory in the July 2024 general election, though his favorability ratings have declined significantly in recent months.
Recent polling from September 2024 showed Starmer's unfavorability rating reaching 60% (+13 from July), while Labour's party favorability also declined to 32% (-15). However, with Parliament now in session and Starmer's government established, the likelihood of him leaving office in the remaining weeks of 2024 appears very low barring an extraordinary event or personal decision to step down.
Analysis
Political Context
- Labour won the July 4, 2024 general election, making Starmer Prime Minister
- Recent polls show declining favorability for both Starmer and Labour:
- Starmer: 30% favorable (-14 since July), 60% unfavorable (+13)
- Labour Party: 32% favorable (-15), 59% unfavorable (+13)
- New government has been in place for several months, establishing stability
Analysis of Outcomes
Yes - Starmer Ceases to be PM (2-3% probability)
Possible paths:
- Resignation due to health or personal reasons
- Major scandal forcing resignation
- Loss of confidence vote within Labour Party
- Constitutional crisis
No - Starmer Remains PM (97-98% probability)
Supporting factors:
- Recent election victory provides mandate
- No viable alternative Labour leader emerging
- High bar for successful no confidence vote
- Limited time remaining in resolution window
Key Factors to Watch
- Internal Labour Party dynamics and potential leadership challenges
- Major policy initiatives or crises requiring PM response
- Further decline in approval ratings that could pressure position
- Health or personal circumstances
Recent Developments
- September polling showing sharp decline in favorability
- New government settling into power after July election
- No significant leadership challenges emerging within Labour
- Parliament functioning normally under new administration
Prediction
I assess a 98% probability that Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister through the end of 2024. While his approval ratings have declined significantly, the recent election victory and limited time remaining in the resolution window make his departure extremely unlikely barring extraordinary circumstances. I have high confidence in this prediction given the institutional stability and lack of viable mechanisms for removal in the short term.
Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024?
Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://twitter.com/electionmaps_uk/status/approval-ratings
- https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/fall-in-public-favourability-towards-keir-starmer-and-labour
- https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2024-results-map-charts-seats-mps-dnr5j72r9
- https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/uk-general-election-july-2024