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State wide recount in Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a statewide recount is initiated in any U.S. state or the District of Columbia as part of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election process by 11:59 PM ET on December 17, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only recounts which are either automatically triggered, requested by either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, or ordered independently by a court or state official will qualify. Recounts requested by third party candidates, such as the 2016 Wisconsin recount requested by Green Party candidate Jill Stein would not qualify. Any full statewide recount, whether conducted by hand or machine will count. However, partial recounts such as the 2020 Wisconsin recount, which only included Milwaukee and Dane counties, or the 2004 Ohio recount which used a sample of 3% of precincts in each county would NOT count. A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes. Any complete re-tallying of the vote will count as a recount, even if officially described as ‘audit’ such as the initial 2020 Georgia recount completed on November 19. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant election authorities. If the legal deadline to initiate a recount has passed in every participating territory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, and there are no formal or legal process underway to initiate a recount, this market may resolve to "No".

Event Details

Total Volume: $19.6K
24h Volume: $3
Total Liquidity: $880
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/17/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market centers on whether a statewide recount will be initiated in any U.S. state for the 2024 Presidential Election by December 17, 2024. Historical data shows that statewide recounts are rare events, occurring in only about 0.5% of statewide general elections between 2000-2023. However, the unique circumstances of the 2024 election - including a rematch between Biden and Trump, ongoing legal challenges to Trump's candidacy, and heightened concerns about election integrity - create an environment where recounts may be more likely than historical averages would suggest. The market currently shows strong confidence (96.9%) that no statewide recount will occur. This aligns with historical patterns but may underestimate the potential for recounts given Trump's history of challenging election results and the increasingly contentious nature of U.S. elections. The key factors that will influence this market include the margin of victory in battleground states, legal challenges to election results, and the willingness of candidates to formally request recounts.

Analysis

Background & Context

Historical Recount Patterns

  • Only 36 statewide recounts occurred out of 6,929 statewide general elections (2000-2023)
  • Average vote shift in recounts: 551 votes
  • Only 3 recounts led to outcome reversals (all with margins <0.06%)

Current Political Environment

  • Rematch between Biden and Trump creates unique dynamics
  • Trump faces multiple legal challenges to ballot access
  • Increased focus on election integrity and potential fraud claims
  • Advanced AI technology raising new concerns about misinformation

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Scenario 1: No Statewide Recount (96.9% Current Probability)

Supporting Factors:

  • Historical rarity of recounts
  • Most elections decided by margins too large to justify recounts
  • Legal and procedural barriers to initiating recounts
  • Cost and time constraints for campaigns

Scenario 2: Statewide Recount Occurs (3.1% Current Probability)

Supporting Factors:

  • Close margins in battleground states
  • Trump's history of challenging results
  • New state laws affecting recount thresholds
  • Increased scrutiny of election processes

Key Factors to Watch

Critical Variables

  1. Margin of Victory
  • States with automatic recount thresholds
  • Battleground state results
  • Early voting patterns
  1. Legal Environment
  • Ongoing challenges to Trump's eligibility
  • State-specific recount laws
  • Court decisions on election procedures
  1. Campaign Behavior
  • Candidate rhetoric about election integrity
  • Campaign preparations for legal challenges
  • Fundraising for potential recounts

Recent Developments

  • Maine's decision to bar Trump from primary ballot
  • Changes to automatic recount thresholds in Arizona
  • Increased focus on hand counting initiatives
  • Growing concerns about AI-generated misinformation

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I predict a slightly higher probability of a statewide recount occurring than the current market suggests. While still unlikely, I estimate a 7% chance of a recount being initiated, primarily due to the unique circumstances of the 2024 election and Trump's demonstrated willingness to challenge results. The market's 3.1% probability appears to underweight these factors. However, I maintain high confidence in a "No" resolution (93% probability) given the historical rarity of recounts and the multiple conditions that must be met for a recount to occur.

State wide recount in Presidential Election?

Yes:7.0%
No:93.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

State wide recount in Presidential Election?

Yes
2.4%
No
97.7%
Liquidity: $880
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