Supreme Court term limits in 2024?

The question of whether legislation imposing term limits on Supreme Court justices will be enacted by December 31, 2024, has gained renewed attention following President Biden's reported interest in proposing such reforms. While public support for Supreme Court term limits remains strong, with polls showing majority approval across party lines, the political and legislative hurdles to enacting such changes are substantial. The current market prices showing a 97.7% probability of no term limits being enacted in 2024 appear well-calibrated given the significant obstacles. These include the need for bipartisan support in a divided Congress, constitutional challenges, and the compressed timeline with the 2024 election dominating the legislative agenda. While Biden has signaled support for term limits, the lack of concrete legislative progress and Republican opposition make passage extremely unlikely before year-end.

Political Background

• Current Supreme Court structure features lifetime appointments for justices
• Growing calls for reform amid ethical concerns and controversial rulings
• Biden administration has shifted from previous reluctance to now supporting term limits
• Proposed reforms typically suggest 18-year terms for future justices

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

No Term Limits Enacted (97.7% Market Price)

Factors supporting this outcome:

• Divided Congress makes major reforms unlikely
• Constitutional challenges would likely delay implementation
• Republican opposition to changing Court structure
• Limited legislative calendar in election year
• No active legislation with significant momentum

Term Limits Enacted (2.4% Market Price)

Factors supporting this outcome:

• Biden administration support for reform
• Strong public approval for term limits
• Recent ethics scandals increasing pressure for change
• Some bipartisan voter support for concept

Key Factors to Watch

1. Congressional Movement

• Any introduction of concrete legislation
• Committee hearings or markups
• Statements from key legislators

2. Political Dynamics

• 2024 election impact on legislative priorities
• Changes in party positions
• Coalition building efforts

3. External Events

• Supreme Court decisions affecting public opinion
• New ethics controversies
• Major court-related developments

Recent Developments

• Biden preparing to propose term limits package
• House and Senate appropriations bills focusing on judicial ethics
• Ongoing ethics investigations of certain justices
• Reintroduction of term limits legislation by Representatives Beyer and Khanna