Supreme Court vacancy in 2024?

The question of whether a Supreme Court vacancy will occur in 2024 involves complex factors including the ages and health of current justices, political dynamics in an election year, and historical patterns of retirement. Current market prices showing only a 4.5% probability of a vacancy reflect both the relative youth of several justices and the lack of clear retirement signals from older justices. The analysis suggests the market pricing is largely rational given the available evidence. While Justices Thomas (75) and Alito (73) are the oldest conservative justices, historical data shows Supreme Court justices frequently serve well into their 80s and 90s. Additionally, given the upcoming presidential election, strategic retirement considerations make an unplanned 2024 vacancy less likely barring health issues.

Current Supreme Court Composition

Age Distribution of Current Justices

• Clarence Thomas: 75 years old
• Samuel Alito: 73 years old
• Sonia Sotomayor: 69 years old
• John Roberts: 68 years old
• Elena Kagan: 63 years old
• Neil Gorsuch: 56 years old
• Brett Kavanaugh: 58 years old
• Amy Coney Barrett: 51 years old
• Ketanji Brown Jackson: 53 years old

Historical Context

• Average retirement age of recent justices has been in mid-80s
• Since 2000, justices who died in office averaged 86.4 years old
• Recent retirees (Souter, Breyer, Kennedy) are still alive at 84-87 years old

Key Factors Affecting Vacancy Probability

Health Considerations

• No public health concerns reported for any sitting justice
• Thomas and Alito, though oldest, show no signs of stepping down
• Historical data suggests justices regularly serve into late 80s

Political Dynamics

• 2024 presidential election year makes strategic retirement less likely
• Conservative justices unlikely to retire during Biden administration
• Liberal justices relatively young and recently appointed

Institutional Factors

• Growing backlog of cases suggests stable court composition preferred
• Ethics reform proposals unlikely to force departures
• Term limits would require constitutional amendment

Recent Developments

• Increasing public support for age limits (79% favor)
• Ethics concerns around Justice Thomas gifts/disclosures
• Biden administration considering ethics reforms

Market Analysis

Factors Supporting Low Probability

• Historical longevity of justices
• Political incentives against retirement
• No reported health issues
• Relatively young court overall

Potential Upside Risks

• Unexpected health issues
• Ethics investigations/pressure
• Political developments
• Personal decisions