← Back to Events
TikTok banned in the US in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $114.5K
24h Volume: $78
Total Liquidity: $30.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether TikTok will be banned in the US by the end of 2024 has seen significant developments throughout the year. Initially, there was strong bipartisan momentum for restrictions on the platform, culminating in President Biden signing legislation in April 2024 that gave ByteDance (TikTok's parent company) approximately 9 months to divest or face a ban. However, this timeline pushes any potential ban into early 2025.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically with Trump's election victory, as he has indicated he would work to prevent a TikTok ban. Combined with the January 2025 deadline set by the current legislation, these factors make a ban in 2024 extremely unlikely. While national security concerns persist, the combination of political, legal, and practical timing constraints effectively rules out a ban before year-end 2024.
Analysis
Legislative Background
- In April 2024, Biden signed legislation requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok within ~9 months
- The deadline for divestment is January 19, 2025
- Failure to comply would trigger restrictions preventing app stores from hosting TikTok
Political Dynamics
- Trump's election victory introduces uncertainty about enforcement
- Trump has publicly stated his intention to "save" TikTok
- Bipartisan concerns about Chinese influence remain but immediate action is unlikely
Key Factors Affecting Timeline
-
Legal Requirements
- Current law sets January 2025 deadline
- No mechanism for earlier enforcement
- Legal challenges could further delay implementation
-
Political Will
- Trump administration unlikely to accelerate timeline
- Congressional focus shifting to transition
- Election year dynamics reduce appetite for controversial actions
-
Technical/Practical Considerations
- Implementation would require significant preparation
- App stores and ISPs need time to comply
- No infrastructure in place for 2024 ban
Recent Developments
- Trump's statements opposing ban
- Kellyanne Conway confirming Trump's priority to prevent ban
- No indication of accelerated timeline from current administration
Market Analysis
The current market price (97.7% No) accurately reflects the extremely low probability of a 2024 ban due to:
- January 2025 legislative deadline
- Trump's opposition to ban
- Lack of mechanism for earlier implementation
- Time required for technical implementation
Prediction
There is virtually no chance of TikTok being banned in the US before December 31, 2024. The January 2025 deadline in the current legislation, combined with Trump's stated opposition to a ban and the practical impossibility of implementation before year-end, makes this outcome nearly certain. Recommend strong positions on "No" outcome despite low return potential.
TikTok banned in the US in 2024?
Yes:10.0%
No:99.9%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress/congress-biden-bill-ban-tiktok-when-2024-election-rcna148792
- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/trump-victory-may-provide-tiktok-a-lifeline-to-remain-in-the-us.html
- https://9to5mac.com/2024/11/12/stopping-the-tiktok-ban-is-reportedly-a-trump-priority/
- https://www.axios.com/2024/03/12/tiktok-ban-explain-why-china-congress