The question of whether a no-confidence motion will pass against Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau between September-December 2024 sits at a critical juncture. Recent polling shows Trudeau's popularity at historic lows, with 72% of Canadians wanting him to step down according to recent Ipsos polling. The Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre has maintained a significant lead in national polling. However, the parliamentary mathematics and political dynamics suggest that while Trudeau faces significant challenges, the likelihood of a successful no-confidence motion remains low. His minority government maintains working relationships with the NDP, and the fractured nature of opposition parties makes coordinating a successful no-confidence vote difficult. While political pressures are mounting, the structural barriers to passing such a motion provide strong protection through 2024.

Political Background

• Trudeau leads a minority government with 155 MPs
• Conservatives hold 118 seats, with remaining seats split between BQ (32), NDP (24), and others
• Recent polling shows Conservatives leading by up to 17 points nationally

Current Government Position

• Maintaining supply and confidence agreement with NDP
• Facing historically low approval ratings (~9% find Trudeau most appealing leader)
• Key challenges around housing affordability, inflation, cost of living

Scenario Analysis

Scenario 1: No-Confidence Motion Passes (8.5%)

Requirements:

• Opposition parties unite successfully
• NDP withdraws support from Liberals
• Significant scandal or crisis emerges
• Timing aligns with opposition strategy

Scenario 2: No Motion Passes (91.5%)

Supporting factors:

• Parliamentary math favors government
• Opposition coordination challenges
• NDP incentivized to maintain agreement
• Historical precedent of minority government stability

Key Factors to Watch

1. Public Opinion

   • Continued erosion of Liberal support
   • Conservative polling momentum
   • Regional voting patterns

2. Economic Conditions

   • Inflation trends
   • Housing market
   • Employment figures

3. Political Developments

   • NDP-Liberal agreement stability
   • Potential scandals
   • Cabinet reshuffles
   • Provincial election results

4. International Context

   • U.S. election impact
   • Global economic conditions
   • International conflicts

Recent Developments

• Polling shows 72% want Trudeau to step down
• Conservative lead maintains at 17 points
• Economic challenges persist around housing and inflation
• Growing speculation about Liberal leadership change