The question of whether Justin Trudeau will cease to be Prime Minister of Canada before the end of 2024 has become increasingly relevant amid declining popularity, economic challenges, and mounting political pressure. Recent polling shows Trudeau's Liberal Party trailing significantly behind the Conservative opposition, while economic measures like the GST holiday suggest political desperation rather than strategic governance. The market currently shows strong conviction (96.7%) that Trudeau will remain in office through 2024, which appears to be pricing in the structural stability provided by his minority government agreement extending until 2025. However, several factors including internal party dynamics, economic conditions, and potential election timing could influence this outcome. The recent announcement of targeted tax breaks and GST holidays indicates both political vulnerability and an attempt to shore up support.

Political Context

• Trudeau leads a minority government supported by an agreement with the NDP through 2025
• Current polling shows Conservatives leading by up to 17 points
• Only 9% of Canadians view Trudeau as most appealing leadership option
• Recent separation from wife Sophie Grégoire has added personal complexity

Economic Conditions

• Bank of Canada has raised rates 10 times since 2022 to combat inflation
• Economic recovery expected in latter half of 2024
• Recent GST holiday and targeted tax breaks announced for December 2024
• Trade tensions with US looming due to potential Trump tariff threats

Potential Outcomes Analysis

Scenario 1: Trudeau Remains PM (96.7% Market Probability)

Supporting factors:

• Formal agreement with NDP extending through 2025
• No immediate election requirement
• High barrier for non-confidence votes
• Historical precedent of PMs serving full terms

Scenario 2: Trudeau Departs (3.3% Market Probability)

Potential triggers:

• Voluntary resignation due to polling/pressure
• Internal Liberal Party leadership change
• Loss of confidence vote
• Early election call

Key Factors to Watch

1. Internal Party Dynamics

• Potential leadership challenges
• Mark Carney speculation
• Cabinet shuffle possibilities

2. Economic Indicators

• Inflation trends
• Housing market
• Employment figures

3. Political Events

• Provincial elections
• Parliamentary votes
• International developments

4. Public Opinion

• Polling trends
• Response to policy initiatives
• Regional support patterns

Recent Developments

• GST holiday announcement for December 2024
• Declining approval ratings for both Trudeau and potential successor Freeland
• Growing Conservative opposition strength under Poilievre
• International tensions with India and China