Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first decision made by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit results in the reduction of the damages awarded to E. Jean Carroll, totaling $83.3 million in her defamation lawsuit against Donald J. Trump, “E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump” (22-cv-10016), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only the first decision by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit regarding the reduction of the $83.3 million judgment will be considered for the resolution of this market. Subsequent appeals, including those to the Supreme Court, will not affect this market's resolution. If the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit's first decision results in a new trial, settlement, or any other outcome that does not directly reduce the $83.3 million judgment, this market will resolve to "No". The market will resolve to "No" if the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit does not issue its first decision regarding the appeal by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the official ruling or documents from the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Background
- E. Jean Carroll won two separate verdicts against Trump:
- May 2023: $5 million for sexual abuse and defamation
- January 2024: $83.3 million for defamation ($11M compensatory, $7.3M emotional damages, $65M punitive)
- Trump has appealed the $83.3M verdict to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals
Legal Context
- Judge Kaplan has officially affirmed the $83.3M verdict
- Trump's attempts to delay proceedings have been repeatedly denied
- Second Circuit has already ruled against Trump on immunity claims
- Appeals must show clear legal errors or abuse of discretion to succeed
Key Factors Affecting Outcome
Timeline Considerations
- Market resolves based on first Second Circuit decision by Dec 31, 2024
- Appeals process typically takes 12-18 months
- Trump's legal team seeking stays and delays
- Second Circuit showing willingness to expedite proceedings
Legal Hurdles for Reduction
- High standard for overturning jury verdicts
- Strong precedent supporting punitive damages
- Judge Kaplan's careful management of trial procedures
- Previous related verdict ($5M) upheld
Recent Developments
- Second Circuit denied Trump's motion to stay proceedings
- Judge formally entered judgment, starting appeal clock
- Trump required to post bond or secure judgment
- Court has restricted Trump's ability to relitigate settled issues
Market Analysis
- Current market pricing (8% Yes / 92% No) reflects:
- Historical difficulty in reducing jury verdicts
- Second Circuit's previous rulings against Trump
- Timeline constraints
- Strong legal foundation for verdict
Trading Considerations
- Key dates to watch:
- Appeal filing deadlines
- Oral argument scheduling
- Bond posting requirements
- Risk factors:
- Potential SCOTUS involvement
- Novel legal arguments
- Political considerations
Prediction
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal?
Sources
- https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/e-jean-carroll-judge-affirms-verdict/index.html
- https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4432467-trump-e-jean-carroll-defamation-read-verdict/
- https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.543790/gov.uscourts.nysd.543790.249.0.pdf
- https://thehill.com/homenews/4357974-trump-immunity-e-jean-carroll-denied-appeals-panel-supreme-court-battle/