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Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order or signs any bill into law that aims to limit or eliminate birthright citizenship in the United States by April 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Event Details

Total Volume: $86.9K
24h Volume: $1.0K
Total Liquidity: $10.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/29/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market focuses on whether Donald Trump will take executive action or sign legislation to limit/eliminate birthright citizenship within his first 100 days in office (by April 29, 2025), if elected president. Based on recent statements and campaign materials, Trump has explicitly committed to signing an executive order on "Day One" to end automatic citizenship for children of illegal immigrants and stop "birth tourism." The evidence suggests a high probability of Trump attempting such action, given his clear public statements, campaign promises, and the inclusion of this policy in his official "Agenda47" platform. However, traders must weigh this against implementation challenges, potential legal battles, and the prerequisite that Trump must first win the 2024 election for this market to be relevant.

Analysis

Background & Context

  • Birthright citizenship is guaranteed under the 14th Amendment of the Constitution
  • Trump previously attempted to end birthright citizenship via executive order in 2018 but did not follow through
  • The policy has become a significant campaign issue for Republican candidates in 2024

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

YES Outcome (51.5% current probability)

Supporting factors:

  • Trump's explicit commitment on his campaign website to sign a Day One executive order
  • Consistent messaging across multiple campaign appearances
  • Alignment with broader immigration agenda
  • Previous attempts indicate serious intent

NO Outcome (48.5% current probability)

Supporting factors:

  • Requires Trump winning the election first
  • Potential legal challenges could delay implementation
  • Previous failure to execute similar plans in first term
  • Complex constitutional implications

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Election Results
  • Trump must win the presidency for this market to be relevant
  • Current polling and electoral developments
  1. Legal Framework
  • Potential pre-emptive legal challenges
  • Constitutional scholars' interpretations
  • Supreme Court composition
  1. Political Environment
  • Congressional support/opposition
  • Public sentiment on immigration
  • Coalition building efforts

Recent Developments

  • Trump has maintained consistent messaging on this issue throughout 2024 campaign
  • Immigration remains a central campaign focus
  • Increased rhetoric about Day One executive actions
  • Growing alignment among Republican candidates on immigration policies

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I predict a 65% probability of a YES outcome, assuming Trump wins the election. The explicit commitment in his Agenda47 platform, combined with his consistent messaging and the political importance of immigration issues, suggests he will likely take immediate action on birthright citizenship if elected. However, this prediction is contingent on Trump winning the presidency first.

Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days?

Yes:65.0%
No:35.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days?

Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Liquidity: $10.3K
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