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Trump declassifies JFK files?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to the assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $293.9K
24h Volume: $613
Total Liquidity: $9.6K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/29/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether Donald Trump will declassify any previously classified JFK assassination-related files by April 29, 2025. Recent developments include Trump's public commitment at an Arizona rally to release "all remaining documents" if re-elected, and ongoing releases under the Biden administration through 2023.
The market's complexity stems from several key factors: Trump must first regain the presidency to have declassification authority, there are persistent national security concerns that have led previous administrations to maintain certain redactions, and there's significant public interest driven by figures like RFK Jr. The deadline of April 29, 2025, creates a narrow window for action even if Trump wins the 2024 election.
Analysis
Current Context
- Biden administration has been actively releasing JFK files throughout 2023
- Over 2,600 documents released between April-June 2023
- Trump publicly committed to full declassification at recent Arizona rally
- RFK Jr. has criticized ongoing withholding of certain documents
Outcome Analysis
Yes Outcome (41%)
Factors supporting:
- Trump's explicit public commitment to release files
- Historical precedent of Trump's interest in declassification
- Strong public interest and pressure for transparency
- Political advantages of appealing to conspiracy-minded voters
Challenges:
- Requires Trump winning 2024 election
- Limited timeline between potential inauguration and deadline
- National security concerns may persist
- Historical pattern of continued redactions
No Outcome (59%)
Supporting factors:
- Trump must win election first
- Narrow implementation window
- Consistent intelligence community opposition
- Pattern of partial rather than full releases
- Biden administration already managing controlled release
Key Factors to Watch
- 2024 Election Results
- National Security Assessment Updates
- Public Pressure/Interest Levels
- RFK Jr.'s Campaign Impact
- New Document Releases Under Biden
Recent Developments
- Biden administration completed major document release in June 2023
- Trump's Arizona rally commitment
- RFK Jr.'s public statements on document withholding
- Ongoing scholarly research and new books about assassination
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I predict a 65% probability of NO and 35% probability of YES. The primary factors driving this assessment are the prerequisite of Trump winning the 2024 election, the narrow implementation window, and historical patterns of partial rather than full declassification. Confidence is moderate given the multiple contingencies involved.
Trump declassifies JFK files?
Yes:35.0%
No:65.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/release2023
- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/23/trump-arizona-rally--rfk-jr
- https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/rfk-jr-decries-biden-admins-withholding-of-some-jfk-assassination-records-5374528
- https://www.history.com/news/final-jfk-files-assassination-documents-release