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Trump declassifies UFO files?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained arial phenomena by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $43.8K
24h Volume: $151
Total Liquidity: $9.8K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/29/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether the Trump administration will declassify UFO files by April 29, 2025, sits at the intersection of politics, national security, and public interest in unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Recent legislative developments, including the passage of a defense bill requiring eventual disclosure of UFO records, have brought renewed attention to government transparency on this issue.
The market currently shows a strong lean toward "No" at 72%, reflecting skepticism about near-term declassification despite growing pressure for transparency. This assessment appears well-founded given the recent gutting of more aggressive disclosure provisions from legislation, continued resistance from intelligence agencies, and the complex political dynamics surrounding UFO-related information.
Analysis
Recent Legislative Context
- Congress passed a defense bill in December 2023 requiring disclosure of UFO records within 25 years
- More aggressive transparency measures were stripped from the final bill
- The National Archives will collect and maintain UAP-related records
- Presidential authority remains to block disclosures for national security reasons
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
No (72% Current Probability) Factors supporting this outcome:
- Recent legislation focuses on long-term (25-year) disclosure rather than immediate release
- Intelligence community shows continued resistance to transparency
- Space Force recently denied FOIA requests related to "Fastwalkers" and "Slowwalkers"
- No indication from Trump campaign that UFO disclosure is a priority
Yes (28% Current Probability) Factors supporting this outcome:
- Growing bipartisan interest in UFO transparency
- Increased public attention to UAP sightings
- Trump's potential desire to make dramatic moves if re-elected
- Precedent of previous administrations releasing some UFO-related information
Key Factors to Watch
- Political Developments
- Outcome of 2024 presidential election
- Trump's campaign messaging on transparency
- Congressional pressure for disclosure
- National Security Context
- New UAP sightings or incidents
- Changes in military/intelligence stance on disclosure
- Additional whistleblower testimonies
- Legal/Administrative Factors
- Implementation of new UFO disclosure legislation
- Ongoing FOIA requests and legal challenges
- National Archives' progress in collecting records
Recent Developments
- AARO's October 2023 report shows increased UAP reporting
- Space Force's recent denial of FOIA requests indicates continued classification
- Bipartisan support for transparency faces institutional resistance
- New legislation establishes framework for eventual disclosure but with significant limitations
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I predict a "No" outcome with 80% confidence. The combination of institutional resistance, lack of campaign focus on the issue, and the recent legislative emphasis on long-term rather than immediate disclosure suggests that UFO file declassification is unlikely to occur by April 2025, even if Trump returns to office. While growing pressure for transparency provides some possibility of a "Yes" outcome (20%), the timeframe and political dynamics make this less likely.
Trump declassifies UFO files?
Yes:20.0%
No:80.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ufo-uap-files-declassification-national-archives_n_657c611ae4b0e142c0bd5eea
- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/15/ufo-records-release-congress
- https://www.theblackvault.com/documentarchive/space-force-says-documents-on-fastwalkers-and-slowwalkers-all-exempt-from-disclosure/
- https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/UNCLASSIFIED-FY23_Consolidated_Annual_Report_on_UAP-Oct_25_2023_1236.pdf