The prediction market focuses on whether Donald Trump will issue any executive order aimed at enhancing or facilitating deportation of illegal immigrants within his first 100 days if elected president in 2024. Based on extensive search results and Trump's public statements, there is strong evidence suggesting he intends to pursue aggressive deportation policies immediately upon taking office. Multiple sources indicate Trump has explicitly promised to launch "the largest deportation operation in American history" starting on day one, with plans to utilize military resources, declare a national emergency, and mobilize various federal and state agencies. His appointment of immigration hardliners like Tom Homan as "border czar" and historical precedent from his first term further support the likelihood of early executive action on deportation.

Background

• Trump has consistently emphasized immigration as a central campaign issue
• Current immigration system faces significant challenges with record border encounters under Biden administration
• Historical context shows Trump issued numerous immigration-related executive orders in his first term

Analysis of Outcomes

Yes (Executive Order Issued) - Current Market Price: 90%

Supporting Factors:

• Trump's explicit promises to begin deportations "on day one"
• Appointment of immigration hardliners to key positions
• Historical precedent of early executive actions in first term
• Detailed plans including military involvement and national emergency declaration
• Strong political pressure from base to act quickly on immigration

Risks:

• Legal challenges could delay implementation
• Logistical constraints may complicate execution
• Potential resistance from military/agencies
• Congressional opposition

No (No Executive Order) - Current Market Price: 10%

Supporting Factors:

• Logistical challenges of mass deportation
• Potential legal obstacles
• Resource constraints
• Political backlash concerns

Risks:

• Very low probability given Trump's clear statements
• Strong political incentives to act quickly
• Established precedent of using executive orders

Key Factors to Watch

1. Trump's campaign statements and policy details
2. Key personnel appointments
3. Legal challenges to existing immigration policies
4. Border situation and migration trends
5. Public opinion on immigration issues

Recent Developments

• Trump has detailed plans for mass deportation program
• Appointed Tom Homan as border czar
• Increasing focus on military involvement
• Reference to historical operations like "Operation Wetback"
• Growing public concern over immigration issues