Trump deportation executive action on Day 1?

The prediction market focuses on whether Donald Trump will issue an executive order aimed at enhancing deportation efforts on January 20, 2025, his first day in office if elected president. Multiple reliable sources indicate Trump has explicitly stated his intention to launch "the largest deportation operation in American history" starting day one, with plans to declare a national emergency and mobilize military resources to support these efforts. The evidence strongly suggests Trump will take immediate executive action on immigration enforcement, given his consistent campaign messaging, appointment of immigration hardliners like Stephen Miller and Tom Homan to key positions, and detailed planning through initiatives like Project 2025. While implementation challenges exist, these would not prevent the issuance of an initial executive order that would satisfy the market's resolution criteria.

Background and Context

• Trump has made immigration a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign
• Key appointments and preparations:
  • Stephen Miller expected to be Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy
  • Tom Homan appointed as "border czar"
  • Project 2025 blueprint details extensive immigration enforcement plans
• Historical precedent from first term shows willingness to issue immediate immigration-related executive orders

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Yes Outcome (81.5% Current Market Price)

Supporting factors:

• Explicit statements from Trump about day one actions
• Planned national emergency declaration
• Appointment of immigration hardliners to key positions
• Detailed planning through Project 2025
• Historical precedent from first term

No Outcome (18.5% Current Market Price)

Supporting factors:

• Potential legal challenges could delay action
• Logistical complexity of implementation
• Competing priorities on first day
• Possibility of modified approach given economic concerns

Key Factors to Watch

1. Campaign statements and policy announcements
2. Additional key appointments
3. Legal challenges or preparations
4. Economic impact assessments
5. State-level cooperation commitments

Recent Developments

• Appointment of Stephen Miller signals aggressive stance
• Project 2025 details emerging
• Trump's continued emphasis on deportation in campaign speeches
• Formation of implementation team including immigration hardliners

Market Analysis

The current market price of 81.5% for "Yes" appears justified but potentially undervalued given the strength of evidence. While implementation challenges exist, these would not prevent the issuance of an executive order meeting the market's criteria.