← Back to Events
Will Trump end the Department of Education?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $110.0K
24h Volume: $4
Total Liquidity: $14.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/29/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether Donald Trump will end the Department of Education (ED) by April 29, 2025, either through complete abolition or by merging it with another agency. Analysis of recent developments and historical context suggests this is unlikely, despite Trump's campaign rhetoric and Republican proposals to eliminate the department.
While there is growing conservative momentum against federal education bureaucracy, as evidenced by state-level initiatives and legislative proposals like Sen. Mike Rounds' bill, the structural and political barriers to eliminating a federal department are substantial. Historical precedent, including Ronald Reagan's unsuccessful attempts to abolish the ED, demonstrates the significant challenges in achieving such a dramatic institutional change within a limited timeframe.
Analysis
Current Political Context
- Trump has made campaign promises to eliminate the Department of Education, aligning with broader Republican criticism of federal education oversight
- Recent legislative proposals (e.g., Sen. Rounds' "Returning Education to Our States Act") demonstrate active Republican interest in dismantling the department
- Biden administration continues to expand ED's role through various initiatives and funding programs
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Outcome 1: Department Eliminated (11.5%)
Factors supporting:
- Republican momentum against federal education bureaucracy
- Trump's stated commitment to elimination
- Growing conservative opposition to ED policies on issues like DEI and transgender rights
Barriers:
- Requires significant legislative action
- Historical precedent shows difficulty in eliminating federal departments
- Complex transition needed for existing programs and responsibilities
- Likely Democratic opposition in Congress
Outcome 2: Department Continues (88.5%)
Supporting factors:
- Institutional inertia and complexity of federal bureaucracy
- Historical failure of similar attempts
- Significant operational challenges in transferring ED functions
- Limited timeline (April 2025 deadline)
- Need for bipartisan support
Key Factors to Watch
- Congressional Control
- Composition of Congress post-2024 election
- Level of Republican unity on education policy
- Legislative Progress
- Movement on Rounds' bill or similar proposals
- Development of concrete transition plans
- Political Capital
- Trump's prioritization of ED elimination vs. other agenda items
- Public support for educational reform
- Implementation Feasibility
- Practical plans for transferring ED functions
- State-level preparedness for increased education responsibility
Recent Developments
- Introduction of Rounds' bill to eliminate ED
- State-level initiatives (e.g., Missouri) showing increasing opposition to education bureaucracy
- Biden administration's continued expansion of ED programs and responsibilities
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I predict an 89% probability that the Department of Education will continue to exist past April 29, 2025. The combination of institutional barriers, limited timeline, and historical precedent makes elimination highly unlikely, despite Republican rhetoric and campaign promises. I assign an 11% probability to successful elimination or merger, primarily accounting for the possibility of unexpected political developments or successful legislative action.
Will Trump end the Department of Education?
Yes:11.0%
No:89.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2024/11/21/mike-rounds-bill-to-cut-department-of-education/76487564007/
- https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/why-its-so-hard-to-kill-the-education-department-and-why-some-keep-trying/2024/08
- https://www.educationnext.org/what-would-another-trump-term-mean-for-education/
- https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/education/2023/12/19/missouri-lawmaker-wants-abolish-state-education-department/71882125007/