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Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between November 4, 2024 and April 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hamas military conflict must pertain to the entirety of Gaza, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media source.
Event Details
Total Volume: $415.5K
24h Volume: $9.5K
Total Liquidity: $21.1K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/29/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market examines whether Donald Trump, if elected president in 2024, would successfully broker a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict within his first 100 days in office (between November 4, 2024 and April 29, 2025). This question comes amid ongoing tensions between Israel and Hamas, with recent attempts at temporary truces showing both the possibility and significant challenges of achieving lasting peace.
Based on the available evidence, including recent failed ceasefire attempts, entrenched positions on both sides, and Trump's historical stance on Israel-Palestine relations, the current market appears to be overvaluing the likelihood of a successful ceasefire within this timeframe. The complexity of the situation, combined with historical precedent and the specific requirements for what constitutes a qualifying ceasefire, suggests the "No" outcome is significantly undervalued at 35%.
Analysis
Current Situation Analysis
Recent Developments
- The recent temporary truce between Israel and Hamas collapsed after Hamas failed to release promised hostages
- Israel has withdrawn negotiators from Qatar and resumed military operations
- Both sides are maintaining hardline positions, with Israel planning expanded operations in southern Gaza
- Humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, increasing international pressure for resolution
Key Factors Affecting Ceasefire Likelihood
Political Dynamics
- Netanyahu's government faces internal pressure against negotiating with Hamas
- Hamas maintains significant hostages as leverage
- International mediators (Qatar, Egypt, US) continue diplomatic efforts
- Trump's stated pro-Israel position may complicate neutral mediator role
Military Considerations
- Israel stated intention for prolonged military campaign
- Hamas maintains capability to continue resistance
- Military pressure viewed as necessary leverage for negotiations
Humanitarian Factors
- Growing civilian casualties increase pressure for resolution
- Aid access remains limited
- International community pushing for sustainable solution
Timeline Considerations
- 100-day window (Nov 4, 2024 - Apr 29, 2025) is relatively short for complex negotiations
- Historical peace processes in region typically take years
- Immediate military objectives likely to extend beyond window
Market Analysis
Factors Supporting "Yes" (65%)
- Trump's deal-making emphasis
- International pressure for resolution
- Potential leverage of US aid/support
Factors Supporting "No" (35%)
- Complex multi-party negotiations required
- Historical difficulty of Israel-Hamas agreements
- Short timeline for implementation
- Trump's strong pro-Israel stance may limit mediator effectiveness
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I assess a 25% probability of Trump achieving a qualifying ceasefire within his first 100 days, and a 75% probability of no ceasefire being achieved. The current market significantly overvalues the likelihood of success given the historical context, complexity of negotiations, and specific timeline constraints.
Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?
Yes:25.0%
No:75.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10