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Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe. This market will resolve based on the first announcement of such an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement.
Event Details
Total Volume: $1.2M
24h Volume: $12.9K
Total Liquidity: $59.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/19/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market question centers on whether Donald Trump will end the Ukraine war through an announced armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement before his potential inauguration on January 19, 2025. Recent revelations about failed peace negotiations in March 2022, combined with current statements from key players including Zelenskyy, Trump, and Russian officials, provide crucial context for analyzing this possibility.
The market currently shows strong skepticism about the likelihood of such an outcome, with only a 6.5% probability assigned to a resolution before Trump's inauguration. This assessment appears well-grounded given the complex web of factors including Ukraine's firm stance on territorial integrity, Russia's conditions for negotiations, and the uncertainty surrounding Trump's ability to broker a deal in the compressed timeframe between election and inauguration.
Analysis
Historical Context
- March 2022 peace negotiations revealed by Ukrainian official Davyd Arakhamia show Russia was willing to end the war in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality regarding NATO
- These talks failed due to lack of trust and Western influence, particularly from then-UK PM Boris Johnson
- Subsequent deterioration of positions has made negotiations more challenging
Current Diplomatic Landscape
Ukrainian Position
- President Zelenskyy has expressed optimism about potential peace under Trump
- Ukraine maintains firm stance on territorial integrity
- Significant skepticism about Russian trustworthiness in negotiations
Russian Position
- Deputy FM Ryabkov explicitly stated no chance of ceasefire in 2024
- Russia maintains demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions
- Putin frames conflict as justified response to 2014 events
Trump's Potential Role
- Has promised to resolve conflict quickly if elected
- Threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine
- Historical relationship with Putin could facilitate negotiations
- Limited time between election and inauguration deadline
Key Factors to Watch
-
Military Developments
- Battlefield momentum
- Strategic victories/losses
- Equipment/resource availability
-
International Support
- Western aid commitments
- Congressional funding decisions
- NATO unity
-
Domestic Politics
- U.S. election results
- Ukrainian public opinion
- Russian internal stability
Recent Developments
- Zelenskyy's public statements showing openness to Trump's involvement
- Continued U.S. military aid packages
- Russian officials' dismissal of near-term peace prospects
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I assess a 9% probability that Trump will end the Ukraine war before his inauguration through an announced armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement. While slightly higher than the current market price, this remains a low-probability event given the significant obstacles to peace, entrenched positions of both sides, and limited timeframe for negotiation. The most likely outcome (91%) is that no such announcement will occur before January 19, 2025.
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
Yes:9.0%
No:91.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/11/25/head-of-ukraine-delegation-at-spring-2022-peace-talks-confirms-russian-delegation-offered-to-end-war-if-ukraine-abandoned-nato-aspirations-says-leaders-had-no-trust-russia-would-follow-through
- https://www.rt.com/russia/588192-ryabkov-ukraine-ceasefire-nato/
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-diplomacy-trump/
- https://kyivindependent.com/trump-threatens-to-cut-off-aid-to-ukraine-prior-to-taking-white-house-as-president-elect/