Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

The prediction markets surrounding potential Trump pardons in his first 100 days reflect a complex web of political, legal, and strategic considerations. The search results indicate that Trump has previously used pardons strategically to reward loyalty and protect allies, particularly those involved in efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. His public statements, especially regarding January 6 defendants whom he's called "unbelievable patriots," provide strong signals about his pardon priorities. The markets show highest confidence in Trump pardoning January 6 protesters (80.5%) and Ross Ulbricht (64.5%), while showing very low probability for pardons of figures like SBF, Diddy, and Matt Gaetz who lack strong political connections to Trump. The probabilities appear to correlate strongly with Trump's expressed sympathies and the degree to which potential pardon recipients align with his political narrative and base of support.

Historical Context

• Trump's previous term showed a pattern of using pardons to reward loyalty and protect allies
• Many pardons were issued late in his term, with 84% occurring in his final fiscal year
• Trump notably circumvented normal DOJ pardon processes for political allies

Analysis by Category

High Probability Pardons (>50%)

1. January 6 Protesters (80.5%)

• Trump has explicitly promised to pardon them
• Strong alignment with his base and political narrative
• Currently facing various legal proceedings

2. Ross Ulbricht (64.5%)

• Libertarian cause célèbre
• Appeals to anti-establishment base
• Previous consideration for pardon

Medium Probability Pardons (10-20%)

1. Steve Bannon (17%)

• Previous pardon recipient
• Key political ally despite tensions
• Ongoing legal issues

2. Edward Snowden (18%)

• Appeals to anti-deep state narrative
• Previously considered for pardon
• International complications

3. Julian Assange (14.5%)

• Similar profile to Snowden
• Supported Trump's 2016 campaign indirectly
• Complex international legal situation

Low Probability Pardons (<10%)

1. Self-Pardon (9%)

• Constitutionally questionable
• May save for later in term
• Could heighten legal scrutiny

2. SBF, Diddy, Young Thug (2.5-5.5%)

• No clear political alignment
• Not part of Trump's core narrative
• No public statements of support

Key Factors to Watch

1. Legal Developments

• Progress of Trump's own cases
• Status of J6 defendant trials
• New indictments of allies

2. Political Climate

• Election results and margin
• Republican Party unity
• Public opinion on pardons

3. Strategic Considerations

• Timing relative to other priorities
• Impact on legal strategies
• Congressional response