Trump signs national abortion ban?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action that explicitly restricts individuals' access to abortion in the United States by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Bills which impose limitations or expand existing restrictions on when, where, or under what conditions abortions can be performed, including measures that reduce the gestational age limit for legal abortions, increase mandatory waiting periods, or limit the circumstances under which exceptions are allowed will qualify. Legislation or executive actions which add regulatory hurdles for providers, such as increased licensing requirements, facility standards, or reporting obligations will not qualify. Any bill signed into law or executive actions within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation or perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns or leaves office), this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, with a consensus of credible reporting used as needed.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Political Context
- Trump has recently expressed support for a 15-week national abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother
- Continues to emphasize state-level control while discussing federal restrictions
- Republican Party has struggled with abortion messaging since Dobbs decision
Key Obstacles to a National Ban
Political Feasibility
- Recent state-level ballot initiatives have consistently supported abortion rights
- Republicans have lost key races where abortion was a central issue
- Trump acknowledges political costs of strict abortion restrictions
Legislative Hurdles
- Would require congressional support
- Timeline constraints given April 2025 deadline
- Uncertain makeup of post-2024 Congress
Trump's Positioning
- Maintains ambiguous stance between federal and state control
- Shows increasing caution on abortion messaging
- Recognizes need to appeal to moderate voters
Recent Developments
- Trump publicly backed 15-week ban in March 2024
- Continues emphasizing state rights despite federal ban discussion
- Growing evidence of electoral risks from strict abortion positions
Key Factors to Watch
- 2024 Election Results
- Congressional makeup
- Presidential outcome
- State-level ballot initiatives
- Public Opinion
- Continued strong support for abortion rights
- Backlash against strict restrictions
- Impact on moderate voters
- Trump's Campaign Strategy
- Balance between base and general election appeal
- Messaging evolution
- Priority level of abortion issue
Prediction
Trump signs national abortion ban?
Sources
- https://www.axios.com/2024/03/20/trump-abortion-national-ban-2024
- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/20/us/politics/trump-15-week-federal-abortion-ban.html
- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/26/election-abortion-ballot-measures-states
- https://www.axios.com/2024/04/08/trump-abortion-ban-rights-legislation-timeline