Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B
This market will resolve to the crypto token which is first to reach 1,000,000,000.00 in fully diluted valuation or greater for five consecutive minutes between April 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "$TRUMP" if the FDV of $TRUMP achieves the resolution criteria before $boden. This market will resolve to "$boden" if $boden achieves the resolution criteria before $TRUMP. If neither achieves the resolution criteria before this market's end date, it will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be 1 minute price candles for $TRUMP (https://dexscreener.com/ethereum/0xe4b8583ccb95b25737c016ac88e539d0605949e8) and $boden (https://dexscreener.com/solana/6uybx1x8yucfj8ystpyizbyg7uqzaq2s46zwphumkjg5), viewed by clicking Price and 1m on the top row of the chart. Specifically, five consecutive 1-minute price candles need to all have Low prices which, when multiplied by the total supply of $TRUMP and $boden, provide an FDV $1,000,000,000.00 or greater for this market to resolve in favor of one token or the other. If the five minute period starts at e.g. December 31, 11:58 PM ET to January 1, 12:02 AM ET, it will count for this market.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Economic Background
Federal Reserve Stance
- Fed Governor Chris Waller has indicated potential rate cuts if inflation continues declining
- More accommodative monetary policy could boost risk assets including crypto
- Market expects easier financial conditions in 2024
Crypto Market Conditions
- Bitcoin recently surpassed $93,000
- Total crypto market cap reached $3.16 trillion
- Strong institutional interest with spot ETF approvals expected
Outcome Analysis
$TRUMP Victory Scenario (52%)
Positive Factors:
- TMTG potential acquisition of Bakkt provides institutional backing
- Trump's election victory driving positive sentiment
- Planned crypto-friendly regulatory appointments
- Current FDV of $2.31B already above threshold
Risks:
- High volatility could make maintaining $1B FDV difficult
- Legal uncertainties around Trump
- Multiple competing Trump-themed tokens
$BODEN Victory Scenario (48%)
Positive Factors:
- Benefits from Solana ecosystem growth
- SOL token leading layer-1 gains
- Increasing active users on Solana network
- Less regulatory/legal uncertainty
Risks:
- Less media attention than Trump-related tokens
- Needs significant growth to reach $1B FDV
- Competition from other Solana-based projects
Key Factors to Watch
- Regulatory Developments
- SEC chair appointment and policy changes
- Crypto advisory board formation
- Enforcement actions
- Market Infrastructure
- Bakkt acquisition progress
- Exchange listings
- Liquidity developments
- Technical Metrics
- Trading volume trends
- Holder concentration
- Price stability at higher valuations
- External Events
- Political developments
- Legal proceedings
- Broader crypto market conditions
Recent Developments
- Trump victory driving crypto market rally
- TMTG in talks to acquire Bakkt
- Solana ecosystem showing strong growth
- Increased institutional crypto adoption
Prediction
Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B
Sources
- https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/24/donald-trump-labelled-wallet-has-over-1m-of-trump-meme-coin/
- https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/trump-media-group-talks-buy-crypto-marketplace-bakkt-bitcoin-approaches-100k
- https://www.wired.com/story/crypto-candidates-front-runners-sec-race/
- https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/trump-ai/
- https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/29/solana-leads-layer-1-token-gains-as-bitcoin-crosses-38k/