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Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following two conditions are met: 1) Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential election. 2) An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for Trump winning the presidency is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This portion of the market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe. This market will resolve based on the first announcement of such an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement. If it is first announced before this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Event Details

Total Volume: $4.3M
24h Volume: $93.7K
Total Liquidity: $125.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/20/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market focuses on whether Donald Trump, if elected president in 2024, would successfully broker an end to the Ukraine-Russia war within his first 90 days in office (approximately January 20 - April 19, 2025). This complex scenario requires two key conditions: Trump winning the presidency and achieving a swift diplomatic breakthrough in a conflict that has proven extremely resistant to resolution. Based on recent developments and statements, Trump has repeatedly claimed he could end the war quickly through direct negotiations with Putin and Zelenskyy. However, the current state of the conflict shows deeply entrenched positions on both sides, with Ukraine focused on strengthening its defensive capabilities and Russia dismissing peace talks. Multiple factors including military dynamics, international support, and diplomatic relations would need to align for any rapid resolution to be achieved within the specified timeframe.

Analysis

Background

  • The Ukraine-Russia war has entered a prolonged phase of military engagement with both sides experiencing significant losses and challenges
  • Ukraine has shifted to a more defensive posture while ramping up drone production capabilities
  • Russian oil revenues have declined by 32% due to sanctions, potentially affecting their military sustainability
  • International support remains strong but shows signs of strain, with ongoing debates about aid continuation

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

YES Outcome (42.5%)

Factors supporting this outcome:

  • Trump's claimed personal relationship with Putin and negotiating experience
  • His stated commitment to ending the conflict quickly if elected
  • Potential leverage through U.S. military aid decisions
  • War fatigue on both sides potentially creating openings for negotiation

Challenges:

  • Limited 90-day window for complex negotiations
  • Need for both sides to agree to terms
  • International complications and existing sanctions
  • Lack of clear negotiation strategy

NO Outcome (57.5%)

Supporting factors:

  • Historical difficulty of rapid conflict resolution
  • Current entrenchment of both sides' positions
  • Complex international dynamics requiring multilateral cooperation
  • Kremlin's current dismissal of peace talks as "absurd"
  • Ukraine's ongoing military preparations and defensive positioning

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Electoral Dynamics
  • Trump's performance in Republican primaries
  • General election polling trends
  • Impact of legal challenges
  1. Military Situation
  • Changes in territorial control
  • Military resources and capabilities
  • Casualty rates and public sentiment
  1. International Relations
  • NATO alliance cohesion
  • Russian diplomatic positioning
  • Ukrainian government stability
  • International support levels
  1. Economic Factors
  • Impact of sanctions on Russia
  • Ukraine's economic sustainability
  • U.S. aid commitments

Recent Developments

  • Trump has made specific claims about ending the war within 24 hours
  • Ukraine is increasing drone production capabilities
  • Russia continues to dismiss peace negotiations
  • NATO members express concern over Trump's stance on alliance commitments

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I assess a 35% probability of a "Yes" outcome and a 65% probability of a "No" outcome. The combination of required conditions (Trump's election victory and successful rapid negotiation) creates significant hurdles for a positive resolution within the specified timeframe. While Trump's negotiation claims are bold, the complex reality of the conflict and entrenched positions of both sides make a swift resolution unlikely even with direct presidential intervention.

Trump_ends_Ukraine_war_by_first_90_days

Yes:35.0%
No:65.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Liquidity: $125.9K
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