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Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between November 17 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Event Details
Total Volume: $48.3K
24h Volume: $3.4K
Total Liquidity: $5.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether Ukraine will successfully strike Moscow with a missile or drone before the end of 2024. This question comes amid an evolving military situation where Ukraine has demonstrated increased capabilities in long-range strikes, while Russia maintains significant air defense systems around its capital.
Based on the available evidence, while Ukraine has shown the ability to conduct drone strikes within Russian territory, a successful strike on Moscow faces significant challenges. These include Russia's enhanced air defenses, Ukraine's focus on military targets closer to its borders, and the political implications of such an escalation. The current market probabilities (22.5% Yes, 77.5% No) appear to reasonably reflect these realities.
Analysis
Military Context and Capabilities
Current Situation
- Ukraine faces ammunition shortages and logistical challenges in 2024
- Russia is increasing military spending and enhancing air defenses
- Western support remains crucial but uncertain
Ukrainian Capabilities
- Increased drone warfare capabilities demonstrated throughout 2023
- Focus on attritional warfare rather than high-profile strikes
- Limited long-range strike capabilities without additional Western support
Russian Defenses
- Significant air defense systems protecting Moscow
- Successfully intercepting majority of Ukrainian drones in border regions
- Enhanced military budget for 2024 prioritizing defensive capabilities
Key Factors Affecting Outcome
Supporting a "No" Resolution
- Ukraine's military strategy focuses on defending territory and degrading Russian forces
- Limited ammunition and resources suggest prioritization of tactical targets
- Russian air defenses have proven effective at intercepting Ukrainian drones
- Political risks of escalation could deter such a high-profile strike
Supporting a "Yes" Resolution
- Ukraine has demonstrated improving drone capabilities
- Increased Western support could provide new strike capabilities
- Potential for new technological developments or tactical innovations
- Ukrainian leadership's stated commitment to bringing the war to Russian territory
Critical Variables to Monitor
- Western military aid decisions
- Ukrainian drone technology advancement
- Russian air defense effectiveness
- Political developments affecting escalation risks
Recent Developments
- Russia preparing for increased mobilization after March 2024 elections
- Ukraine focusing on building defensive capabilities for 2024
- Ongoing ammunition shortages affecting Ukrainian operations
- Enhanced Russian air defense successes against Ukrainian drones
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I assess a 20% probability of Ukraine successfully striking Moscow before 2025, slightly lower than the current market price of 22.5%. While Ukraine has demonstrated improved strike capabilities, the combination of Russian air defenses, resource constraints, and strategic priorities make such an attack unlikely to succeed. Traders should consider taking short positions on the "Yes" outcome while being mindful of potential technological or strategic developments that could shift probabilities.
Will Ukraine hit Moscow before 2025?
Yes:20.0%
No:80.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
- https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/
- https://jamestown.org/program/russias-war-against-ukraine-lessons-learned-in-2023-and-2024-outlook/
- https://247wallst.com/special-report/2024/01/10/how-russias-and-natos-military-capabilities-compare-2/