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U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States imposes an arms embargo on Israel at any point between October 13, 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. An arms embargo is defined as a formal U.S. government action that prohibits or restricts the sale, transfer, or delivery of military weapons or defense equipment to Israel or an official announcement from the U.S. government announcing an embargo. A limited embargo, restricting only certain categories of military equipment, will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. An announcement of an embargo will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether the embargo actually goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $122.8K
24h Volume: $0
Total Liquidity: $9.2K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether the U.S. will impose an arms embargo on Israel in 2024 comes amid significant military support from the Biden administration to Israel following the October 7th Hamas attacks. Recent developments show the U.S. actively expanding rather than restricting military aid, with the White House seeking to remove restrictions on weapons transfers and approving a $20 billion arms package. While there is growing pressure from progressive Democrats and public criticism over civilian casualties in Gaza, the Biden administration has consistently reaffirmed its "ironclad" commitment to Israel's security. The administration's actions, including efforts to streamline military aid and bypass traditional oversight mechanisms, strongly suggest that an arms embargo is highly unlikely in 2024.

Analysis

Current Situation

U.S. Military Support for Israel

  • Biden administration recently approved $20 billion arms package including F-15 fighters and advanced missiles
  • White House seeking to remove restrictions on weapons transfers from U.S. stockpiles
  • Ongoing access to War Reserve Stocks for Allies-Israel (WRSA-I)
  • Regular shipments of ammunition and military equipment continuing

Political Dynamics

  • Biden maintains "ironclad" commitment to Israel's security
  • Growing progressive Democratic criticism of unconditional military support
  • AIPAC maintains significant influence over Congressional politics
  • Public opinion showing decreased support for military aid to Israel

Analysis of Outcomes

Embargo Implementation (3.3% probability)

Supporting factors:

  • Growing humanitarian concerns in Gaza
  • Progressive pressure within Democratic Party
  • Declining public support for unconditional military aid

Opposing factors:

  • Biden's consistent pro-Israel stance
  • Recent $20B arms package approval
  • Active efforts to remove restrictions on arms transfers
  • Strong AIPAC influence in Congress

No Embargo (96.8% probability)

Supporting factors:

  • Clear administration policy of supporting Israel
  • Recent actions to expand rather than restrict military aid
  • Historical precedent of U.S.-Israel military cooperation
  • Strategic importance of relationship
  • Bipartisan congressional support for Israel

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Civilian casualties in Gaza
  2. Progressive Democrat influence on Biden administration
  3. Public opinion shifts
  4. Regional escalation
  5. 2024 election dynamics

Recent Developments

  • White House seeking removal of congressional oversight on arms transfers
  • $20B arms package approval
  • Biden's public statements reaffirming support
  • Growing but limited progressive opposition

Prediction

Based on current evidence, I assess there is a roughly 97% probability that no U.S. arms embargo will be imposed on Israel in 2024. The Biden administration's recent actions to expand military support, combined with strong bipartisan backing for Israel in Congress, make an embargo highly unlikely. While progressive pressure and humanitarian concerns could lead to limited restrictions on specific weapons systems, a full embargo appears extremely improbable.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

Yes:3.0%
No:97.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

Yes
4.0%
No
96.0%
Liquidity: $9.2K
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