← Back to Events
US congress stock trading ban in first 100 days?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $6.1K
24h Volume: $9
Total Liquidity: $19.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/29/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
A bipartisan group of senators has made significant progress on legislation to ban stock trading by members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children. The Ending Trading and Holdings in Congressional Stocks (ETHICS) Act passed through the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee in July 2024, marking the first time such legislation has cleared committee.
The bill would impose an immediate ban on members of Congress purchasing stocks, require divestment within 90 days of enactment, and extend restrictions to spouses and dependent children by March 2027. While the legislation has gained momentum and bipartisan support, it still faces hurdles including securing 60 votes in the Senate and passage through the House of Representatives before the April 2025 deadline.
Analysis
Current Status
- ETHICS Act passed Senate committee with 8-4 vote
- Bipartisan support from key senators including Hawley (R), Ossoff (D), Peters (D), and Merkley (D)
- Scheduled for further legislative action
- Strong public support across party lines for banning congressional stock trading
Key Provisions
- Immediate ban on stock purchases by members of Congress
- 90-day window for divestment after enactment
- Extension to spouses and dependent children by March 2027
- Increased penalties for violations (greater of one month's salary or 10% of asset value)
- No exemption for blind trusts
Factors Supporting Passage
- Bipartisan coalition backing the legislation
- Strong public support for reform
- Recent history of controversial trading incidents
- Committee passage demonstrates viable path forward
- Multiple concurrent efforts in both chambers
Potential Obstacles
- Need for 60 votes in Senate
- Limited legislative calendar
- Potential opposition from affected members
- Historical failure of similar efforts
- Complexity of implementation details
Recent Developments
- Committee passage in July 2024
- Growing coalition of supporters
- Active push from House members for floor vote
- Increased media attention and public scrutiny
Timeline Considerations
- Deadline of April 29, 2025 provides ~5 months from current date
- May need attachment to must-pass legislation
- Election cycle could impact legislative priorities
Prediction
Based on the current evidence, I estimate a 40% probability that a congressional stock trading ban will be signed into law by April 29, 2025. While momentum exists and bipartisan support is present, the need for 60 Senate votes and historical challenges in passing similar legislation suggest the timeline may be too aggressive. However, strong public support and recent legislative progress make this a legitimate possibility.
Will a ban on stock trading for U.S. Congress members be signed into law by April 29, 2025?
Yes:40.0%
No:60.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.businessinsider.com/senate-new-ban-stock-trading-merkley-ossoff-hawley-2024-7
- https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-peters-bipartisan-legislation-banning-congressional-stock-trading-passes-through-committee/
- https://thehill.com/business/4418458-lawmakers-urge-speaker-johnson-to-bring-stock-trading-ban-to-floor-for-vote/
- https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senators-push-stock-trading-ban-prevent-lawmakers-profiting-insider-kn-rcna161115