U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Current Strategic Environment
U.S. Military Posture
- Significant military assets deployed to Middle East
- Multiple carrier strike groups
- B-52 bombers and F-22 fighters
- Enhanced missile defense systems
- Over 50 attacks on U.S. bases by Iranian-backed militias reported
- U.S. maintaining primarily defensive posture while emphasizing deterrence
Legal/Political Framework
- Multiple national emergencies regarding Iran continue
- 1979 emergency renewed November 2023
- 1995 emergency renewed March 2024
- Official U.S. position characterizes Iran as "extraordinary threat"
Analysis of Possible Outcomes
YES Outcome (8.5% Current Market Price)
Factors supporting higher probability:
- Escalating pattern of attacks by Iranian proxies
- Substantial U.S. military presence creating potential flash points
- Historical precedent for U.S. retaliatory strikes
- Risk of miscalculation in tense environment
NO Outcome (91.5% Current Market Price)
Factors supporting higher probability:
- High bar for resolution requiring direct action against Iranian territory
- U.S. emphasis on deterrence over escalation
- Limited timeframe (Oct 21-Dec 31, 2024)
- U.S. strategic focus on Indo-Pacific region
Key Factors to Monitor
- Frequency and intensity of Iranian proxy attacks
- U.S. military deployment patterns
- Regional developments (Israel-Hamas conflict, Hezbollah activities)
- Official U.S. statements and posture changes
- Iranian provocations or escalatory actions
Recent Developments
- Increased U.S. military presence in region
- Ongoing attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq/Syria
- Enhanced missile defense deployments
- Continued national emergency declarations
Prediction
U.S. military action against Iran in 2024
Sources
- https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/11/07/notice-on-the-continuation-of-the-national-emergency-with-respect-to-iran-6/
- https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2023-11-13/american-troops-mideast-iran-militant-groups-12039203.html
- https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-19-2023
- https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/03/13/2024-05568/continuation-of-the-national-emergency-with-respect-to-iran
- https://www.axios.com/2024/08/28/us-warships-middle-east-iran-israel-war
- https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-bombers-troops-israel-iran-middle-east-tensions-2024-11