OddsChad
← Back to Events

U.S. Recession in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States within the calendar year 2024, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate. This includes any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-Q4. The determination will be based on the most recently released report by the BEA for each quarter. If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised before the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the most recent revision available will be used for market resolution instead of the initial Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarters, including Q4 itself. The primary resolution source for this market is the BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP, as available on their website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if there is ambiguity in the official data.

Event Details

Total Volume: $582.2K
24h Volume: $1.1K
Total Liquidity: $63.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether the U.S. will experience a recession in 2024 has been a significant focus of economic discussion throughout the year. Based on the latest GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience, with positive growth rates of 3.0% in Q2 2024 and 2.8% in Q3 2024. This continued expansion makes it extremely unlikely that the economy will experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2024. The Federal Reserve's careful management of monetary policy, combined with strong consumer spending and robust labor markets, has helped maintain economic growth despite earlier concerns about inflation and interest rates. While some economists had predicted a recession earlier in the year, the actual economic data has consistently demonstrated growth, making a recession in the remaining quarter of 2024 highly improbable.

Analysis

Economic Background

Federal Reserve Policy

  • Federal funds rate maintained at elevated levels (5.1% in 2024)
  • Inflation has moderated throughout 2024
  • Fed projections show confidence in achieving soft landing

Current Economic Conditions

  • Q2 2024: 3.0% GDP growth
  • Q3 2024: 2.8% GDP growth
  • Unemployment rate stable around 4.0%
  • Strong consumer spending continues
  • Robust government spending, particularly in defense

Outcome Analysis

Scenario 1: Recession (2.5% probability)

  • Would require dramatic reversal in Q4
  • Nearly impossible given current momentum
  • No significant economic shocks visible
  • Time window extremely limited

Scenario 2: No Recession (97.5% probability)

  • Supported by current GDP trajectory
  • Consistent with Fed projections
  • Backed by strong labor market
  • Aligned with consumer spending patterns

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Q4 GDP Data (forthcoming)
  2. Consumer spending patterns
  3. Labor market stability
  4. Federal Reserve policy decisions
  5. Global economic conditions

Recent Developments

  • Q3 GDP shows continued growth at 2.8%
  • Personal income trends remain positive
  • Government spending provides additional support
  • Export growth contributing to economic expansion

Prediction

Based on the comprehensive analysis of current economic conditions and recent GDP data, I predict with very high confidence that the U.S. will NOT experience a recession in 2024. The positive GDP growth in Q2 (3.0%) and Q3 (2.8%) 2024 makes it virtually impossible for the economy to record two consecutive quarters of negative growth within the remaining time frame. I assign a 98% probability to "No Recession" and 2% to "Recession" in 2024.

U.S. Recession in 2024?

Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

U.S. Recession in 2024?

Yes
2.1%
No
97.9%
Liquidity: $63.3K
Trade →