OddsChad
← Back to Events

Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vivek Ramaswamy is appointed to replace J. D. Vance as United States senator from Ohio in the wake of a successful bid for the US Vice Presidency in the 2024 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump and J. D. Vance lose the election on November 5, 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No". If someone else is appointed to replace J. D. Vance as United States senator from Ohio this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $33.4K
24h Volume: $0
Total Liquidity: $5.8K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 2/9/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market concerns whether Vivek Ramaswamy will replace J.D. Vance as U.S. Senator for Ohio. This scenario would only occur if specific conditions are met: Trump must win the 2024 presidential election, select Vance as VP, and then appoint Ramaswamy to fill Vance's Senate seat. Recent developments have significantly diminished the likelihood of this outcome. Ramaswamy has already suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump, while also endorsing Bernie Moreno for Ohio's other Senate seat. Additionally, multiple sources indicate that while Vance is on Trump's VP shortlist, there are several other strong contenders being considered, including Elise Stefanik and Doug Burgum.

Analysis

Background

  • J.D. Vance currently serves as a U.S. Senator from Ohio
  • Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his presidential campaign after a poor showing in Iowa
  • Trump is the likely Republican nominee and has indicated he has chosen his VP but hasn't announced who

Potential Outcomes Analysis

YES Scenario (2.9% probability)

Requirements for this outcome:

  • Trump wins the 2024 election
  • Trump chooses Vance as VP
  • Ramaswamy is appointed to fill Vance's Senate seat

Challenges:

  • Multiple competitors for VP slot
  • Ramaswamy has already endorsed another Senate candidate in Ohio
  • No clear indication Trump favors Ramaswamy for Senate appointment

NO Scenario (97% probability)

This outcome occurs if:

  • Trump/Vance lose the election
  • Trump chooses someone else as VP
  • Another person is appointed to fill potential Senate vacancy
  • Vance remains as Senator

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Trump's VP Selection
  • Current shortlist includes multiple candidates
  • Vance is mentioned but not clearly favored
  • Announcement expected before Republican Convention
  1. Ohio Political Dynamics
  • Ramaswamy has endorsed Bernie Moreno for other Senate seat
  • Governor DeWine would make appointment if vacancy occurs
  • Special election would be required in 2025
  1. Electoral Prospects
  • Trump faces legal challenges
  • Polling will affect VP selection
  • Senate majority implications

Recent Developments

  • Ramaswamy suspended presidential campaign and endorsed Trump
  • Trump indicated VP choice made but not announced
  • Betting markets favor other VP candidates over Vance

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, there is a very low probability (approximately 3%) that Vivek Ramaswamy will replace J.D. Vance as U.S. Senator for Ohio. Multiple conditions would need to align perfectly for this outcome, and recent developments suggest alternative scenarios are far more likely. The market's current pricing of 97% for NO appears well-justified.

Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio?

Yes:3.0%
No:97.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio?

Yes
2.9%
No
97.1%
Liquidity: $5.8K
Trade →