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What will Trump say in next live speech?
This is a market group over what terms Donald Trump will use in his next speech, starting on November 18, 2024.
Event Details
Total Volume: $62.6K
24h Volume: $4.5K
Total Liquidity: $14.8K
Markets: 15
Event Ends: 1/20/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction markets are focused on Donald Trump's word choice in his next live speech on November 18, 2024, following his victory over Kamala Harris in the presidential election. The search results indicate Trump has been focusing heavily on immigration, border security, and retribution against political opponents in his recent rhetoric.
Based on the available information, Trump's speech is likely to emphasize his planned policy initiatives for his upcoming term, particularly around immigration enforcement and deportation. The context suggests he will continue using strong, emotionally charged language while addressing his base and outlining his vision for his return to the White House.
Analysis
Context and Background
Political Environment
- Trump has won the 2024 election against VP Kamala Harris
- Plans to declare national emergency on border security
- Assembling cabinet with immigration hardliners
- Focusing on mass deportation policies
Recent Speech Patterns
- Strong emphasis on immigration and border security
- Use of terms like "invasion" and "jihadists"
- Aggressive rhetoric toward political opponents
- Frequent references to national greatness/restoration
Analysis of Individual Outcomes
High Probability Terms (>50%)
- "MAGA" (70.5%): Core campaign slogan likely to appear
- "Elon" (69%): Given tech focus and platform discussions
- "god" (57%): Common in victory speeches, appeals to base
Medium Probability Terms (20-50%)
- "deport" (34.5%): Central to stated policy agenda
- "Kamala" (23%): May reference defeated opponent
- "Iran" (22.5%): International policy context
Low Probability Terms (<20%)
- "crypto/Bitcoin" (15.5%): Not currently central to messaging
- "monkey pox" (3.6%): Outdated health concern
- "Gaetz" (11%): Individual congressman unlikely to be mentioned
Key Factors to Watch
- Recent Events
- Middle East conflict developments
- Immigration statistics/border situation
- Economic indicators
- Speech Context
- Location/venue of speech
- Intended audience
- Policy announcements planned
- Political Strategy
- Cabinet formation progress
- Opposition response
- Base mobilization needs
Prediction
Based on the analysis, I recommend taking positions on:
- "MAGA" YES (70.5% seems undervalued given historical usage)
- "deport" YES (34.5% appears low given policy focus)
- "Kamala" NO (23% seems high for victory speech context)
- "god" YES (57% reasonable given speech context)
Other markets appear fairly priced within reasonable ranges.
Will Trump say 'MAGA'
Yes:85.0%
No:15.0%
Will Trump say 'deport'
Yes:55.0%
No:45.0%
Will Trump say 'Kamala'
Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10