The markets are currently pricing in high probabilities of confirmation (90%+) for most of Trump's cabinet nominees, with a few notable exceptions. This reflects the Republican control of the Senate following the 2024 elections and Trump's apparent strategy of nominating mostly mainstream Republican figures who already have relationships with key senators. However, there are significant risks to these high confidence levels. The search results indicate that Trump's transition team is behind on critical vetting and paperwork processes, which could delay or derail confirmations. Additionally, Democratic senators may use procedural tactics to slow the process, and some Republican senators have expressed concerns about the vetting process and specific nominees.

Political Background

• Republicans won control of the Senate in 2024 elections, giving them a 52-48 majority
• Trump transition team is reportedly behind on standard vetting processes and paperwork
• Some Republican senators have expressed concerns about proper vetting of nominees
• Democrats likely to use procedural tactics to delay confirmations

Analysis by Nominee Category

High Probability Confirmations (90%+ Market Confidence)

These nominees share common characteristics that justify their high confirmation odds:

• Mainstream Republican credentials
• Previous government experience
• Existing relationships with senators
• No major controversies
• Clear qualifications for their roles

Includes:

• Pam Bondi (AG)
• Doug Collins (VA)
• Elise Stefanik (UN)
• Sean Duffy (Transportation)
• Chris Wright (Energy)
• Doug Burgum (Interior)
• Kristi Noem (DHS)
• Lee Zeldin (EPA)
• Mike Huckabee (Israel Ambassador)
• John Ratcliffe (CIA)
• Scott Bessent (Treasury)

Medium Probability Confirmations (50-90%)

These nominees face more significant challenges:

Pete Hegseth (Defense) - 61.5%

• Lacks traditional defense/military leadership experience
• May face questions about management experience
• Some controversial past statements

RFK Jr. (HHS) - 66.5%

• High profile and controversial views on vaccines
• Previous Democratic affiliation
• Likely strong opposition from medical community

Tulsi Gabbard (DNI) - 53%

• Former Democrat may face trust issues from Republicans
• Questions about intelligence experience
• Could face opposition from both parties

Rejected Nominations

Matt Gaetz (AG) - 0%

• Markets pricing in zero chance of confirmation
• Controversial figure with significant baggage
• Clear opposition from key Republican senators

Key Factors to Watch

1. Vetting Process

• Speed of FBI background checks
• Completion of ethics agreements
• Senate questionnaire responses

2. Senate Dynamics

• Individual senator positions, especially moderates
• Committee assignments and leadership
• Use of "blue slip" process for certain nominations

3. Democratic Opposition

• Procedural delay tactics
• Ability to win Republican defections
• Focus of opposition research

4. Trump Strategy

• Potential use of recess appointments
• Willingness to withdraw controversial nominees
• Speed of nomination submissions