The upcoming presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025, presents a unique prediction market opportunity focused on attendance by key political figures. Based on the search results and current context, Donald Trump appears positioned as the likely president-elect, creating an unusual dynamic around which political figures will attend given the controversial nature of his presidency and the events following the 2020 election. The market currently shows high probabilities (89-94%) for attendance by former presidents and first ladies, with slightly lower probabilities for figures like Nancy Pelosi (72%) and notably low probability for Jimmy Carter (1.6%). These probabilities reflect both traditional inaugural norms of bipartisan attendance and the unique political tensions surrounding Trump's potential return to office.

Political Context

• Trump has emerged as the clear Republican frontrunner based on primary results and polling
• Significant political polarization continues to affect relationships between Trump and Democratic leaders
• Traditional norms of peaceful transition and bipartisan attendance at inaugurations are being tested

Historical Precedent

• Former presidents typically attend inaugurations regardless of party affiliation
• The 2021 inauguration saw Trump break tradition by not attending Biden's ceremony
• Living former presidents have historically shown unity at such ceremonies

Analysis by Category

Former Presidents

• Joe Biden (94% Yes): As immediate predecessor, high likelihood despite tensions
• Barack Obama (91.5% Yes): Consistent with his commitment to democratic traditions
• George W. Bush (91% Yes): Has maintained cordial relationships with successors
• Bill Clinton (90.5% Yes): Likely to attend given historical precedent
• Jimmy Carter (1.6% Yes): Low probability due to age and health considerations

Democratic Leaders

• Hillary Clinton (89.5% Yes): Likely to attend as former First Lady despite 2016 loss
• Nancy Pelosi (72% Yes): Lower probability reflects stronger opposition to Trump
• Michelle Obama (89.5% Yes): Likely to attend with Barack Obama

Trump Allies

• Rudy Giuliani (81% Yes): High probability given strong Trump alliance, despite legal issues

Key Factors to Watch

1. Legal Developments

• Ongoing Trump legal cases could affect attendance decisions
• Potential court decisions affecting Trump's eligibility

2. Political Climate

• Level of political tension leading up to inauguration
• Public sentiment and protests

3. Security Concerns

• Threat assessments and security preparations
• Potential for demonstrations affecting attendance

4. Personal Factors

• Health considerations for elderly attendees
• Individual political calculations by key figures