← Back to Events

Who will be Trump's Attorney General?

This is a market on predicting the individual who will be confirmed as the next Attorney General.

Event Details

Total Volume: $1.3M
24h Volume: $2.7K
Total Liquidity: $175.9K
Markets: 11
Event Ends: 6/30/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The selection of Trump's next Attorney General represents a critical decision point that would shape the Department of Justice's direction under a potential second Trump administration. Based on extensive reporting and analysis, Trump is likely to prioritize loyalty and alignment with his agenda over traditional qualifications, particularly given his ongoing legal challenges and stated intentions to use the DOJ more aggressively for political purposes. The search results reveal several leading candidates being discussed, including Sen. Mike Lee, former DNI John Ratcliffe, Jeffrey Clark, Judge Aileen Cannon, and others. Trump's selection will likely be heavily influenced by his desire for an AG who would be willing to pursue his political opponents while protecting him from ongoing legal challenges.

Analysis

Background

  • The Department of Justice has traditionally maintained independence from direct presidential control
  • Trump has expressed frustration with this independence and seeks to reshape the DOJ's role
  • Multiple sources indicate Trump plans to use the DOJ more aggressively in a second term

Leading Candidates Analysis

Tier 1 - High Probability

  • John Ratcliffe

    • Former DNI with proven loyalty to Trump
    • Strong defender during investigations
    • Has necessary credentials and experience
  • Sen. Mike Lee

    • Close Trump associate
    • Member of Judiciary Committee
    • Strong conservative credentials

Tier 2 - Moderate Probability

  • Jeffrey Clark

    • Previous DOJ experience
    • Willing to challenge 2020 election results
    • May face confirmation challenges
  • Judge Aileen Cannon

    • Trump appointee with favorable rulings
    • Younger option for long-term impact
    • Limited executive branch experience

Tier 3 - Lower Probability

  • Mike Davis
    • Strong Trump supporter
    • Helped advance judicial nominees
    • May lack confirmation viability

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Legal Developments

    • Outcome of Trump's criminal trials
    • Timing of potential convictions
  2. Political Climate

    • Election results and margin of victory
    • Senate composition for confirmation
  3. Candidate Positioning

    • Public statements of loyalty
    • Involvement in Trump's legal defense

Recent Developments

  • Trump campaign officially dismissing speculation about appointments
  • Increased focus on loyalty tests for potential appointees
  • Growing emphasis on using DOJ for political purposes

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I predict John Ratcliffe has the highest probability (30%) of becoming Trump's next Attorney General, followed by Mike Lee (20%) and Jeffrey Clark (15%). Other candidates collectively share the remaining 35% probability. This assessment has a moderate-high confidence level given the complex political dynamics and time until potential appointment.

Trump_Next_AG

John_Ratcliffe:30.0%
Mike_Lee:20.0%
Jeffrey_Clark:15.0%
Aileen_Cannon:10.0%
Mike_Davis:5.0%
Other:20.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Market Options

Will Jay Clayton be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
0.1%
No
99.9%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Mike Davis be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Ken Paxton be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
1.6%
No
98.5%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Andrew Bailey be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
1.3%
No
98.7%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Matthew Whitaker be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
1.1%
No
98.9%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Todd Blanche be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
2.6%
No
97.4%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Mike Lee be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
0.4%
No
99.6%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Will Levi be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Robert Giuffra be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
0.3%
No
99.7%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
92.5%
No
7.5%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →

Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General?

Yes
0.8%
No
99.2%
Liquidity: $175.9K
Trade →